- Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the
global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger,
acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly
anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion
that, due to the global leaders' incapacity to fully realise the scope
of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the
consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic
crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase
of global geopolitical dislocation. According to LEAP/E2020, this
new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes happening
in two parallel sequences: A. Two major processes
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- 1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar &
Debt) all over the world 2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global
system's big players and blocks B. Two parallel sequences
1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
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- 2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.
We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world's leaders the
opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global
system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible
to be optimistic in this regard (1). In the United States, as in Europe,
China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has
only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown, merely requiring loads
of fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of
toxic assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries,) to reboot it. In fact
(and this is what LEAP/E2020 means ever since February 2006 using the expression
&laqno; global systemic crisis"), the global system is simply out
of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what
can no longer be saved.
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- Orders in the manufacturing sector, Quarter 4 2008 (Japan,
Eurozone, United Kingdom, China, India) - Sources : MarketOracle / JPMorgan
History is not known to be patient, therefore the fifth phase of
the crisis will ignite this required process of reconstruction, but in
a harsh manner: by means of a complete dislocation of the present system,
with particularly tragic consequences in the case of several big global
players, as described in this 32nd issue of the GEAB (see the two parallel
sequences).
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- According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small
launch window left to prevent this scenario from shaping up: the next four
months, before summer 2009. Practically speaking, the April 2009 G20 Summit
is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play,
i.e. before the sequence of UK and then US defaults begin (2). Failing
which, they will lose their capacity to control events (3), including those
in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this
phase of geopolitical dislocation like a "drunken boat". At the
end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more
like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007. Because they
persisted in bearing the ever-increasing weight of the ongoing crisis,
most states, including the most powerful ones, failed to realise that they
were planning their own trampling under the weight of History, forgetting
that they were merely man-made organisations, only surviving because they
matched the interest of a large majority. In this 32nd edition of the GEAB,
LEAP/E2020 has chosen to anticipate the fallout of this phase of geopolitical
dislocation so far as it affects the United-States, EU, China and Russia.
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- US Monetary base - (12/2002 12/2008) - Source US
Federal Reserve / <http://www.DollarDaze.comhttp://www.DollarDaze.com
It is high time for the general population and socio-political players
to get ready to face very hard times during which whole segments of our
societies will be modified (4), temporarily disappear or even permanently
vanish. For instance, the breakdown of the global monetary system we anticipated
for summer 2009 will indeed entail the collapse of the US dollar (and all
USD-denominated assets), but it will also induce, out of psychological
contagion, a general loss of confidence in paper money altogether (these
consequences give rise to a number of recommendations in this issue of
the GEAB).
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- Last but not least, our team now estimates that the most
monolithic, the most &laqno; imperialistic » political entities (5)
will suffer the most from this fifth phase of the crisis. Some states will
indeed experience a strategic dislocation undermining their territorial
integrity and their influence worldwide. As a consequence, other states
will suddenly lose their protected situations and be thrust into regional
chaos.
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- Notes (1) Barack Obama, like Nicolas Sarkozy or
Gordon Brown, spend their time chanting about the historic dimension of
the crisis, but they are just hiding the fact that they fully misunderstand
its nature in an attempt to clear their names from the future failure of
their policies. As to the others, they prefer to persuade themselves that
the problem will be solved like any normal technical problem, albeit a
little more serious than usual. Meanwhile everyone continues to play by
decades old rules, unaware of the fact that the game is vanishing from
under their noses. (2) See previous GEABs. (3) In fact it
is probable that the G20 will find it more and more difficult to simply
meet, as the growing trend is one of &laqno; every man for himself ».
(4) Source : New York Times, 102/14/2009 (5) Idem companies.
Lundi 16 Février 2009 In the same category
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- End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of
the global systemic crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups
of countries experiencing very different evolutions - 05/02/2009
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- Real estate: A bottomless pit - 08/01/2009
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- Factor N°4 Economic recession in the US - 11/12/2008
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- LEAP/E2020 offers the GEAB archives to 100 academic libraries
worldwide! - 05/11/2008
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- LEAP/2020: Global systemic crisis September 2008 - Special
announcement - 24/09/2008
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- Traffic Info LEAP/E2020 - May 2008 - 12/05/2008
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- Issues of your choice for 50 euros - 22/01/2007
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- French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work
of anticipation - 30/08/2006 Global Research Articles by GEAB
- http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12332
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