- After the Soviet Union's 1991 dissolution, Georgia's
South Ossetia province broke away and declared its independence. So far
it remains undiplomatically recognized by UN member states. It's been traditionally
allied with Russia and wishes to reunite with Northern Ossetes in the North
Ossetia-Alania Russian republic. Nothing so far is in prospect, but Russia
appears receptive to the idea. And for Abkhazia as well, Georgia's other
breakaway province. The conflict also has implications for Transdniestria,
the small independent Russian-majority part of Moldova bordering Ukraine,
and for Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.
-
- Tensions arose and conflict broke out in late 1991. It
resulted in a 1992 ceasefire to avoid a major confrontation with Russia,
but things remained unsettled. Moscow maintains a military presence in
the province as well as in Abkhazia and exerts considerable political and
economic influence. Throughout the 1990s, intermittent conflict erupted
but nothing on the order of early August 7 when Georgia acted with aggression
against the S. Ossetian capital, Tskninvali.
-
- Russiatoday.com reported the early timeline:
-
- -- at 22:50 GMT, Tskhinvali reported heavy shelling;
-
- -- 22:00 GMT - TASS news agency reported intensive Georgian
firing on the capital's residential areas;
-
- -- 21:27 GMT - Russia's Vesti television reported that
S. Ossetia's military downed a Georgian attack plane;
-
- -- 21:25 GMT - Georgia announced plans to withdraw half
its Iraq forces because of the conflict;
-
- -- 21:22 GMT - S. Ossetia claimed to be in control of
Tskhinvali, but Georgian forces attempted to retake the city;
-
- -- 20:36 GMT - The UN Security Council began closed-door
discussions on the conflict - initiated by Georgia and the second in 24
hours;
-
- -- 20:25 GMT - Georgia asked the US to pressure Russia
to "stop (its) armed aggression;"
-
- -- 19:08 GMT - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said
"Russia is taking adequate military and political measures" to
end the violence;
-
- -- 18:56 GMT - S. Ossetia's government said it controls
Tskhinvali, but fighting in one city district continued;
-
- -- 17:35 GMT - Georgian President Saakashvili claimed
that Georgia controlled Tskhinvali and most S. Ossetian villages and regions;
-
- -- 17:20 GMT - S. Ossetian leader Kokoity asked the world
community to stop Georgia's "genocide" and recognize the territory's
independence; he claimed 1400 deaths in the fighting;
-
- -- 16:46 GMT - thousands of S. Osettians fled the fighting;
-
- -- 16:14 GMT - Russia's Air Force denied bombing a Georgian
military base;
-
- -- 14:23 GMT - reports from Tskhinvali indicated mass
fires in the city;
-
- -- 13:25 GMT - Russia's Defence Ministry accused Georgian
troops of shooting peacekeepers and civilians and denying them medical
help;
-
- -- 13:16 GMT - Saakashvili accused Russia of waging war
and asked for US support;
-
- -- 12:55 GMT - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accused
Georgia of ethnic cleansing Ossetian villages;
-
- -- 12:04 GMT - Russia's Defence Ministry said it sent
peacekeeping reinforcements to S. Ossetia;
-
- -- 11:25 GMT - reports indicated that Tskhinvali was
completely destroyed;
-
- -- 10:33 GMT - Georgia announced a three-hour ceasefire
to let civilians evacuate the conflict zone;
-
- -- 9:36 GMT - Russia's Parliament cited Georgia's aggression
as a "serious reason" to recognize S. Ossetian independence;
-
- -- 8:18 GMT - firefights spread to Tskhinvali streets;
-
- -- 6:51 GMT - the UN Security Council failed to approve
a Russia-sponsored ceasefire call; fighting intensified;
-
- -- 5:01 GMT - S. Ossetia sought Russian protection and
help to stop the fighting; and
-
- -- 4:13 GMT - Georgian troops resumed attacking Tskhinvali
in a continued act of aggression; things remained unsettled; fighting continued
and at times with ferocity.
-
- On August 8, The New York Times reported that Georgia
officials "accused Russia (on August 5) of violating the country's
airspace and firing a guided missile...." Russia denied the charge,
called it baseless, and said no Russian planes were in the area either
August 4 or 5th. Georgia, on the other hand, said they were as a "provocation
aimed only" to disrupt Georgia's peace and "change the political
course of the country."
-
- Earlier in March, Georgia accused Russia of launching
missile attacks on Georgian villages in the volatile Kodori Gorge. Relations
deteriorated markedly last year after Georgia arrested and deported four
Russian Army officers, accusing them of spying. Moscow recalled its ambassador,
cut air, sea and postal links, and deported several thousand Georgians
in response. These events and others led up to the present conflict with
considerable suspicions about what's behind them. The New York Times reported
(August 10) that conflict had been brewing for years but suggested Russia
is at fault:
-
- -- emboldened by its Checknya successes;
-
- -- the Kremlin's loathing of President Saakashvili -
personally and politically;
-
- -- tensions over Washington's ties with him - providing
political, economic and especially military support, including a total
overhaul of its forces complete with large stockpiles state-of-the-art
weapons and munitions as well as training to use them;
-
- -- Saakashvili's alliance with the Bush administration
in Iraq; and
-
- -- President Putin granting citizenship and passports
to most S. Ossetian and Abkhazian adults.
-
- Unmentioned by The Times are:
-
- -- reasons behind the growing tensions between Washington
and Moscow;
-
- -- the Bush administration's unilateral abandonment of
the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM);
-
- -- its continued provocations around the world, including
in areas sensitive to Russia;
-
- -- its massive military buildup; -- its advocacy for
preventive, preemptive and "proactive" wars with first-strike
nuclear weapons;
-
- -- NATO's role in serving America's imperial interests;
-
- -- enlarging it with new member states, including former
Soviet republics;
-
- -- encircling Russia with US military bases; -- situating
them in former Soviet republics and regional states;
-
- -- the strategic importance of Georgia for the Anglo-American
Caspian oil pipeline; its extension from Baku, Azerbaijan (on the Caspian)
through Georgia (well south of S. Ossetia), bypassing Russia and Iran,
and across Turkey to its port city of Ceyhan - the so-called BTC pipeline
for around one million barrels of oil daily, adjacent to the South Causasus
(gas) Pipeline with a capacity of about 16 billion cubic meters annually;
-
- -- the regional stakes involved: Washington and Russia
vying to control Eurasia's vast oil and gas reserves;
-
- -- Israel's role in the region; its interest in the BTC
pipline; its negotiations with Georgia, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan
to have it reach its Ashkelon oil terminal and Red Sea Eilat port; its
selling Georgia state-of-the-art weapons, electronic warfare systems and
intelligence; its use of military advisors to train Georgian forces in
commando, air, sea, armored and artillery tactics as well as instruction
on military intelligence and security;
-
- -- its refusal to freeze its Georgian military alliance;
the dubious reliability of Haaretz citing an AP August 7 report that "Israel
has decided to halt all sales of military equipment to Georgia because
of (Russia's) objections....to give Israel leverage with Moscow....not
to ship arms and equipment to Iran" such as sophisticated S-300 air
defense missiles; the Israeli Foreign Ministry refusing comment on an arms
freeze and Georgian Cabinet minister Temur Yakobashvili saying "There
has been no decision by Israel to stop selling (us) weapons;"
-
- -- believe it, and here's what Haaretz says Israel supplies:
high-tech infantry weapons, artillery systems electronics, and upgrades
for Soviet-designed Su-25 ground attack jets as well as Israeli generals
advising Georgia's military; Israel also sells Hermes 450 UAV spy drones
according to Russiatoday.com; according to some sources, it's a virtual
gold mine for Israeli defense contractors, but Haaretz reports it's much
less at around $200 million a year - well below American and French sales;
-
- -- on August 10, the Israeli ynetnews.com highlighted
"The Israeli Connection" and reported "Israeli companies
have been helping (the) Georgian army (prepare) for war against Russia
through arms deals, training of infantry and security advice;" it
was helped by Georgian citizens "who immigrated to Israel and became
businesspeople," and the fact that Georgia's Defense Minister, Davit
Kezerashvili, "is a former Israeli fluent in Hebrew (whose) door was
always open to the Israelis who came and offered his country arms;"
deals went through "fast" and included "remote-piloted (Elbit
System) vehicles (RPVs), automatic turrets for armed vehicles, antiaircraft
systems, communications systems, shells and rockets;"
-
- -- Russia's anger over Georgia and Ukraine seeking NATO
membership and Washington's pressuring other members to admit them;
-
- - the planned installation of "missile defense"
radar in the region - in Poland, Czechoslovakia and potentially other sensitive
areas, all targeting Russia, China, and Iran;
-
- -- its provoking Russia to retarget nuclear missiles
at planned "radar" locations; and
-
- -- targeting Russia for dissolution (as the US's main
world rival), diffuse its power, control Eurasia, including the country's
immense resources on the world's by far largest land mass.
-
- The New Great Game
-
- What's at stake is what former National Security advisor
Zbigniew Brzezinski described in his 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard."
He called Eurasia the "center of world power extending from Germany
and Poland in the East through Russia and China to the Pacific and including
the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent." He continued: "The
most immediate (US) task is to make certain that no state or combination
of states gains the capacity to expel the United States from Eurasia or
even to diminish significantly its decisive arbitration role." Dominating
that part of the world and its vast energy and other resources is Washington's
goal with NATO and Israel its principal tools to do it:
-
- -- in the Middle East with its two-thirds of the world's
proved oil reserves (about 675 billion barrels); and
-
- -- the Caspian basin with an estimated 270 billion barrels
of oil plus one-eighth of the world's natural gas reserves.
-
- "New World Order" strategy aims to secure them.
Russia, China, and Iran have other plans. India allies with both sides.
Former Warsaw Pact and Soviet republics split this way:
-
- -- NATO members include the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Hungary, Poland, Romania, Albania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania;
-
- -- Georgia and Ukraine seek membership; while
-
- -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazahkstan, Moldova,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgystan ally with Russia.
-
- Georgia now occupies center stage, so first some background
about a nation Michel Chossudovsky calls "an outpost of US and NATO
forces" located strategically on Russia's border "within proximity
of the Middle East Central Asian war theater." Breakaway S. Ossetia
and Abkhazia, though small in size, are very much players in what's unfolding
with potential to have it develop into something much bigger than a short-lived
regional conflict.
-
- In 2003 with considerable CIA help, Georgia's President
Saskashvili came to power in the so-called bloodless "Rose Revolution."
Georgia held parliamentary elections on November 2. International observers
called them unfair. Sackashvili claimed he won. He and the united opposition
called for protests and civil disobedience. They began in mid-November
in the capital Tbilisi, then spread throughout the country. They peaked
on November 22, the scheduled opening day for parliament. Instead, Saakashvili-led
supporters placed "roses" in the barrels of soldiers' rifles,
seized the parliament building, interrupted President Eduard Shevardnadze's
speech, and forced him to escape for his safety.
-
- Saakashvili declared a state of emergency, mobilized
troops and police, met with Shevardnadze and Zurab Zhvania (the former
parliament speaker and choice for new prime minister), and apparently convinced
the Georgian president to resign. Celebrations erupted. A temporary president
was installed. Georgia's Supreme Court annulled the elections, and on January
4, 2004, Saakashvili was elected and inaugurated president on January 25.
New parliamentary elections were held on March 28. Saakashvili's supporters
used heavy-handed tactics to gain full control, but behind the scenes Washington
is fully in charge. It pulls the strings on its new man in Georgia and
stepped up tensions with Russia for control of the strategically important
southern Causasus region.
-
- On January 5, 2008, Saakashvili won reelection for a
second term in a process his opponents called rigged. Given how he first
gained power and the CIA's role in it, those accusations have considerable
merit.
-
- After the outbreak of the current crisis, Russia's NATO
envoy, Dmitry Rogozin, accused the Alliance of "encourag(ing) Georgia
to attack S. Ossetia and called it "an undisguised aggression accompanied
by a mass propaganda war." Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,
called attention to Georgia's "massive arms purchasing....during several
years" and its use of "foreign specialists" to train "Georgian
special troops."
-
- In his August 10 article titled - "War in the Causasus:
Towards a Broader Russia-US Military Confrontation?" - Chossudovsky
notes how "attacks were timed to coincide with the Olympics largely
with a view to avoiding frontpage media coverage" and to let saturation
Beijing reports serve as distraction.
-
- Now after days of fighting, headlines cite 2000 or more
deaths (largely civilians), huge amounts of destruction, Tskhinvali in
ruins, and many thousands of refugees seeking safe havens. Accounts of
Georgian atrocities have also surfaced, and according to Chossudovsky they're
part of a planned "humanitarian disaster (against civilian targets)
rather than (an impossible to achieve) military victory" against a
nation as powerful as Russia. Had Georgia sought control, a far different
operation would have unfolded "with Special Forces occupying key public
buildings, communications networks and provincial institutions."
-
- So why did this happen, and what can Washington hope
to gain when it's bogged down in two wars, threatening another against
Iran, and thoroughly in disrepute as a result? It's part of a broader "Great
Game" strategy pitting the world's two great powers against each other
for control of this vital part of the world.
-
- Bush administration plans may come down to this - portray
Russia as another Serbia, isolate the country, and equate Putin and/or
Medvedev with Milosevic and hope for all the political advantage it can
gain. "The war on Southern Ossetia," according to Chossudovsky,
"was not meant to be won, leading to the restoration of Georgian sovereignty
over (the province). It was intended to destabilize the region while triggering
a US-NATO confrontation with Russia."
-
- Georgia is its proxy. Its attack on S. Ossetia is a made-in-Washington
operation. But not according to George Bush (on August 10) who "strongly
condemned (Russia's) disproportionate response," and Dick Cheney (on
the same day) saying its military "aggression must not go unanswered,
and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations
with the United States, as well as the broader international community."
An EU statement agreed. It expressed its "commitment to the sovereignty
and the territorial integrity of Georgia" and pretty much accused
Russia of aggression.
-
- Russia's response and capabilities are unsurprising.
It counterattacked in force, battered Georgian troops, inflicted damage
at will, reportedly overran the Gori military base in Senaki, moved south
into Georgia proper, and largely attacked military targets with great effect.
It also wants an emergency meeting with NATO and issued an ultimatum for
Georgian troops to disarm in the Zugdidi District along the Abkhazia -
Georgia border. For its part, Georgian officials said Russia's "wide-scale
assault (is) aimed at overthrowing the government."
-
- On August 10, the London Guardian reported that the Caucasus
conflict "spread to Georgia's second breakaway province of Abkhazia,
where separatist rebels and the Russian air force launched an all-out attack
on Georgian forces." Abkhazia's leader, Sergei Bagapsh, said "around
1000 Abkhaz troops" engaged in a major "military operation"
to force Georgian forces out of the strategic Kodori gorge. Russian army
spokesman, Anatoly Nogovitsyn, told Interfax: "We do not intend to
take the initiative in escalating the conflict in this region. We are primarily
interested in" stabilizing Abkhazia.
-
- On August 12, AP reported that "Russian President
Dmitri Medvedev ordered a halt to military action in Georgia (today), saying
it had punished (the country) and brought security for civilians and Russian
peacekeepers." Nonetheless, reports are that fighting continues, and
Medvedev ordered his military to quell "any emerging hotbeds of resistance
or any aggressive actions...." Foreign Minister Lavrov added that
Moscow won't talk to Saakashvili and said he'd "better go."
-
- The latest AP August 13 report is that Georgian officials
claim Russian tanks "seized a (Georgian) military base (and) also
held onto ground in western Georgia, maintaining control of the town of
Zugdidi." For its part, "Russia accused Georgia of killing more
than 2000 people, mostly civilians, in South Ossetia." Witnesses confirmed
that hundreds had died there, and expectations are that the death toll
will rise "because large areas of Georgia (are) too dangerous for
journalists to enter (to assess) the true scope of the damage."
-
- On the Attack - The Corporate Media React
-
- Despite the Olympic distraction, the dominant media jumped
on this story and are unsurprisingly one-sided in their reports. On August
11, a New York Times editorial headlined "Russia's War of Ambition"
in which it lamented that Saakashvili "foolishly and tragically baited
the Russians - or even more foolishly fell into Moscow's trap...."
It accused the Kremlin of "bull(ying) and blackmail(ing) its neighbors
and its own people." It stated "There is no imaginable excuse
for (invading) Georgia" and defended "Saakashvili's 'democratically
elected' government."
-
- It accused Vladimir Putin of "shoulder(ing) aside
(Medvedev) to run the war (and) appears determined to reimpose by force
and intimidation as much of the old Soviet sphere of influence as he can
get away with." The US and its European allies "must tell Mr.
Putin in the clearest possible terms that such aggression will not be tolerated."
They'll also "need to take a hard look at their relationship with
Russia going forward....Russia needs to behave responsibly. And the United
States and Europe must make clear that anything less is unacceptable."
-
- The Los Angeles Times' op-ed writer Max Boot (noted for
his hard-right views) was just as one-sided in referring to the "Red
Army" and saying the West must "Stand up to Russia." It
must protect Saakhashvili and prevent Moscow from "replac(ing) him
with a pro-Kremlin stooge." Its leaders must "stand together
and make clear that this aggression will not stand." He called Russia's
"excuses" for its "aggression....particularly creepy"
and said they mirrored Hitler's when he "swallow(ed) Czechoslovakia
and Poland." He added that "the lesson" of the 1930s must
be heeded because the "cost of inaction" is too high.
-
- David Clark in the London Guardian was also hostile in
his op-ed headlined "The west can no longer stand idle while the Russian
bully wreaks havoc." He described "Russian policy (as) uniquely
destructive in generating instability and political division in the Caucasus"
and excused Saakhashvili for his actions. He referred to "Georgia's
role in maintaining the only east-west pipeline route free of Russia's
monopolistic grip...." He called Georgia's security concerns "real,
and Russia is the cause." David Clark is a former government adviser
and now chairman of the pro-West Russia Foundation.
-
- The Wall Street covers this story daily in news reports
and commentaries. On August 11, it gave Saakashvili a half page for his
op-ed headlined "The War in Georgia Is a War for the West," and
he didn't mince words. He accused Russia of "waging (all-out) war
on my country (that's) not of Georgia's making (nor its) choice. The Kremlin
designed this war....(it's) a war about (Georgia's) independence and future
(and) about the future of freedom in Europe."
-
- On August 12, writers Gary Schmitt and Mauro De Lorenzo
headlined "How the West Can Stand up to Russia," and they were
just as hostile. They accused Moscow of "cutthroat politics....at
home and abroad" and asked "What can the West do?" First
they urge "rush(ing) military and medical supplies to Tbilisi (and)
Washington should lead." It should then tell Moscow that the West
has a "greater capacity to sustain a new Cold War (and aim) to put
Mr. Putin and Dmitry Medvedev on their back foot diplomatically."
-
- Then on to the larger issue of "break(ing) Russia's
"stranglehold on Europe's energy supplies" and one other thing
- building a "strong, prosperous and fully independent Georgia (heading
for) NATO and EU membership" allied against Russia.
-
- The Journal's same day editorial headlined "Vladimir
Bonaparte" after one day earlier accusing Moscow of "Kremlin
(business) Capers" and admonishing investors against "putting
money into Russia." On the 12th, it warned that "Georgia is only
the first stop for Eurasia's new imperialist." It referred to Putin
"consolidat(ing) his authoritarian transition as Prime Minister with
a figurehead president....Ukraine is in his sights, and even the Balkan
states could be threatened if he's allowed to get away with it. The West
needs to draw a line at Georgia."
-
- It called on NATO to "respond forcefully....start
today (and said) this is perhaps the last chance for President Bush to
salvage any kind of positive legacy toward Russia (by) rally(ing) the West's
response." Putin seeks to "dominat(e)....the world stage. Unless
Russians see that there are costs for their Napoleon's expansionism, Georgia
isn't likely to be his last stop."
-
- Welcome to the new Cold War and new Great Game, what
a new administration will inherit next year, and the very worrisome thought
that it will handle things no better than the current one no matter who's
elected or which party controls Congress.
-
- Stephen Lendman is a Research Associate of the Centre
for Research on Globalization. He lives in Chicago and can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.
-
- Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com
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