- I have served as a consultant to three very high tech
aerospace firms. My specialty is conceptualizing advanced warfare especially
as it relates to new cutting edge advanced weapon systems. What I see unfolding
with a war on Iran is the most frightening set of circumstances I have
ever seen; and I have been involved in advanced theoretical weaponry strategy
and design for over 20 years.
- Sometime in the weeks to months ahead, there will be
a war launched against Iran. The war may be started by Israel, or by the
United States, or by a NATO/EU/US embargo, or by some 'false flag' attack.
What matters is that it will begin; and where it will take the world.
- Regardless if the war begins with a limited number of
air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, or if an all-out
several thousand target attack begins from day one the probabilities of
the war becoming a major regional war within 48 hours are 90% or higher.
- The Iranians will simply not allow Israeli and/or American
military forces to attack its territory without a major response. Any significant
counter-attack on Israel and/or American regional bases will trigger a
much greater counter-response.
- The Iranians have equipped and paid for, and trained,
a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon (the largest
such force in human history). These missiles are in-place as a MAD force
(a MAD ~ mutually assured destruction ~ force is one that is a doomsday
force; established to prevent the use of overwhelming military force by
allowing a return "punch" of overwhelming military destructive
force upon one's enemy). The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon
are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided
Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated
by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.
- The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained
and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size.
They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude
rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km
range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads.
Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more
advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired
approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyshas) all utilizing
only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied
Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed
that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control
of Syrian and Iranian officers.
- The combination of short to medium range rockets and
guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria,
the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and
the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight
of warheads aimed at Israel.
- The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon
War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force
in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and
supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost
Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and the
Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete
bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were
hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved
ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs
or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat;
or declare peace and walk away for the time being ~ the Israelis chose
- It now appears that Israel has given up on the idea of
a ground assault to remove the many rocket and missile launchers in Lebanon.
A senior Israeli general has resigned with the complaint that the Army
is not training sufficiently to fight in Lebanon. The alternative is the
use of FAE (fuel air explosive) technology weapons and neutron bombs (a
type of nuclear weapon that produces a higher short term radiological output
and less blast output than normal nuclear weapons).
- Any use of such WMD by the Israeli Army on the Hezbollah
forces in Lebanon will likely automatically trigger the use of WMD warheads
on whatever rockets/missiles remain operational (if their use has not already
been authorized due to the nature and scope of Israeli and/or American
attacks on Iran).
- The bottom line of this is that Israel will face a truly
massive number of rockets and missiles from Lebanon with radiological,
chemical, biological and FAE weapons of mass destruction warheads. Additionally,
a sizable number of such weapons/warheads will be fired from Gaza and the
West Bank. The Syrians will be using larger more accurate guided missiles
to shower WMD upon Israel as will the Iranians. To counter this, the Israelis
will be using their Green Pine Radar system and a combination of Israeli
and American anti-missile missiles. They will have good success in knocking
down many incoming missiles but the sheer number of incoming weapons will
totally overload all defensive measures.
- Large parts of Israel will be contaminated with radiation
with extremely long half-lives (many tens of thousands of years in some
cases), with a mix of chemical, FAE, and biological nightmares thrown in
for good measure. Total deaths will amount to one-third to one-half of
the Israeli population with a large additional number being injured.
- The Israeli response will be the nuclear annihilation
of Syria, Iran, and parts of Lebanon with many tens of millions killed.
Expect to see every city of any size destroyed. There will be insufficient
people left in Syria, Iran, and large parts of Lebanon to even bury the
dead. Radiation will spread around the world from the nuclear bombs.
- Iranian sleeper teams in North America and western Europe
will begin to "seed" the populations of these areas with a number
(perhaps in the several dozens) of different man made killer viruses. People
in movie theaters, churches, synagogues, shopping malls, subway stations,
airports, etc., will be exposed without anyone knowing it at the time,
to these advanced biowar viruses. About nine to ten days later the computer
reporting systems in the western countries will begin to report back strange
illnesses. That will trigger a host of measures to contain the advanced
biowar viruses but it will simply be too late to prevent a massive outbreak
of horrific illnesses. International travel and trade will effectively
stop. People will be ordered to stay home from work and school with only
critical job holders being allowed on the streets. Hospitals will be overcome
with sick and dying people of all ages. The medical community will be among
the first to die off. Where temporary hospitals are established in school
gyms and other areas, the cross infection of several different genetically
engineered viruses will ensure 100% morality of everyone in the temporary
- In the event that the neo-con nations have sought to
expand the Georgia war by new attacks on Russian forces or by creating
some naval incident in the Black Sea the probabilities of an quick expansion
into a all-out Third World War involving Russian and NATO nuclear weapons
will be at approximately 50%. Even without a global total war being initiated,
Russia is apt to "sweep" the Black Sea of NATO ships with considerable
loss of life on both sides.
- The world will be in the worst economic depression in
history as global trade will be halted for at least several months due
to fears of the spread of the various advanced biowar viruses. If Israel
releases the Arab specific designer advanced biowar viruses, that many
claim she has, the Saudis are apt to fire their Chinese IRBMs (intermediate
range ballistic missiles) and send their very well equipped air force against
Israel with the small number of nuclear weapons that they possess (they
have funded the Pakistani nuclear weapon program and have several Pakistani
made nuclear devices). Of course, what is left of the Israeli forces will
respond with additional nuclear attacks, this time on Saudi Arabia and
other Arab nations for good measure.
- In North America and western Europe the total number
of civilians, after two months of advanced biowar illnesses, is apt to
be at least a third of the population ~ a total death count of well over
200 million persons. Despite the best efforts of all nations, the man engineered
super killer mutant viruses will spread throughout the world causing total
numbers of perhaps a billion or more to die.
- The after effect of all of this may well lead to even
more war as the non-neo-con nations will be so incensed at the massive
lost of life of their citizens that total global war may be unstoppable.