- NATIONAL FARMERS UNION
- National Office
- 2717 Wentz Ave.
- Saskatoon, Sask., S7K 4B6
- 306 652-9465 Fax 306 664-6226
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- SASKATOON, Sask -- Today, the United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply
and demand for the coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will
plunge to a 53-day equivalent- their lowest level in the 47-year period
for which data exists. "The USDA projects global grain supplies will
drop to their lowest levels on record. Further, it is likely that, outside
of wartime, global grain supplies have not been this low in a century,
perhaps longer," said NFU Director of Research Darrin Qualman.
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- Most important, 2007/08 will mark the seventh year out
of the past eight in which global grain production has fallen short of
demand. This consistent shortfall has cut supplies in half-down from a
115-day supply in 1999/00 to the current level of 53 days. "The world
is consistently failing to produce as much grain as it uses," said
Qualman. He continued: "The current low supply levels are not the
result of a transient weather event or an isolated production problem:
low supplies are the result of a persistent drawdown trend." In addition
to falling grain supplies, global fisheries are faltering.
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- Reports in respected journals Science and Nature state
that 1/3 of ocean fisheries are in collapse, 2/3 will be in collapse by
2025, and our ocean fisheries may be virtually gone by 2048. "Aquatic
food systems are collapsing, and terrestrial food systems are under tremendous
stress," said Qualman.
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- Demand for food is rising rapidly. There is a worldwide
push to proliferate a North American- style meat-based diet based on intensive
livestock production -turning feedgrains into meat in this way means exchanging
3 to 7 kilos of grain protein for one kilo of meat protein. Population
is rising-2.5 billion people will join the global population in the coming
decades. "Every six years, we 're adding to the world the equivalent
of a North American population. We' re trying to feed those extra people,
feed a growing livestock herd, and now, feed our cars, all from a static
farmland base. No one should be surprised that food production can't keep
up," said Qualman.
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- Qualman said that the converging problems of natural
gas and fertilizer constraints, intensifying water shortages, climate change,
farmland loss and degradation, population increases, the proliferation
of livestock feeding, and an increasing push to divert food supplies into
biofuels means that we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food
shortage.
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- Qualman cautioned, however, that there are no easy fixes.
"If we try to do more of the same, if we try to produce, consume,
and export more food while using more fertilizer, water, and chemicals,
we will only intensify our problems. Instead, we need to rethink our relation
to food, farmers, production, processing, and distribution. We need to
create a system focused on feeding people and creating health. We need
to strengthen the food production systems around the world. Diversity,
resilience, and sustainability are key," concluded Qualman. - 30 -
For More Information:
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- Darrin Qualman, Director of Research
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- Stewart Wells, NFU President
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- Backgrounder to the NFU's May 11, 2007 news release
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- The United States Department of Agriculture reports recent
grain supply and demand numbers on its World Agriculture Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) website at
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- http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
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- The longer-term data on world grains supply and demand
is at Production, Supply, and Demand Online (PSD) at
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- http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx
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- The NFU created the graph below using USDA data from
the above-noted sites. The graph takes stocks/use ratios ("ending
stocks" divided by "total use") and multiplies these percentages
by 365 to get a more intuitive "days of supply" number. World
total grains, days of supply: 1960/01 - 2007/08
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- (Sorry, The Graph Won't Post)
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- Note that the graph projects supplies for the upcoming
year to hit their lowest record levels- lower even than the 1973 levels
that spurred a rapid price increase. Note also the unprecedented and steep
downward trendline for the past 8 years.
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