- Somewhere in the recesses of the Pentagon, US and Israeli
military generals have been given the task of war-gamming a likely attack
on Iran. A predicable response to any US/Israeli attack is an Iranian
counter-attack. Has anyone in the Pentagon calculated the possibility that
Iran already possesses a nuclear device? Or maybe two?
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- Rather than make a nuclear weapon, suppose Iran simply
bought some surplus nukes from Russia or China years ago? Why bother with
the trouble of creating your own nukes when you can more easily buy one?
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- What would be the Persian translation of Fatman and Little
Boy? Or better yet, what would be the likely target-or targets-of Iranian
nuclear counter-attacks? Are Tel Aviv and the Green Zone that expendable,
or even Tehran?
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- After I wrote Day
One - The War With Iran I received a large number of responses from
Rense readers. Many thought my First Day scenario too tame.
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- Patrick Hedemark wrote: "While it is a harrowing
read, I believe it is a very mild rendition of what we are going to witness.
This coming attack on Iran is going to eventually result in conflict with
Russia, China and Korea. It is unavoidable.
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- "First off, Iran is NOT going to be caught unawares.
Your depiction of their response is far more tepid than what they have
been preparing for nearly one year now. If we can destroy 20 % of their
missile inventory we would be lucky at best. We will lose most if not all
our shipping in the Gulf. We will lose nearly all the available tarmac
in the Gulf as well. They have the capacity to rain hell down on our boys
in Iraq--and they will.
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- "They will ORDER an offensive in Iraq by the Shia
that is most probably already preplanned and prearranged. Our forces are
cut off there by a minimum of 500 miles from the coast. They will need
to navigate this 500 miles with more than 300,000 armed Shia in the south.
It will be anything but easy."
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- Another respondent wrote: "An interesting hypothesis.
But one that I feel underestimates the effectiveness of the Iranian missile
defensive shield," said Neil Turner. "From what I have been told,
Iran has in place a very effective Ukrainian missile defence system. This
is the same one that the Serbs used to shoot down a stealth bomber during
the Kosovo/Serb conflict. The Serbs had but one battery, the Iranians have
many."
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- "The point to keep in mind is that every US/Israeli
attack since WWII has been against militarily weak and ill-equipped nations,"
added Hugh Joseph. "Iraq, for example, had already been weakened by
the first Gulf war, bombed relentlessly by Clinton, and starved by UN sanctions
before the invasion of 2003 could begin. Iran is strong, heavily armed
and spoiling for a fight. The course and outcome of this conflict will
be entirely unpredictable, except for higher prices all around, the collapse
of the stock market, imposition of martial law on the US and the price
of gold going to the Moon."
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- In my scenario, Day One: The War With Iran, I envisioned
a limited counter strike from Iran, using their conventional weapons, but
an enormous, worldwide blowback at the gas pumps. Call it the Katrina Effect
at hyper-speed, lasting not weeks but months or years, where the price
of gasoline skyrockets and eventually becomes scarce. Would most Americans
approve? Right up to the end of the first day.
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- Former Reagan Treasury Secretary, Paul Craig Roberts,
observed: "A
LATimes/ Bloomberg poll, finds that 57 percent of the respondents 'favor
military intervention if Iran's government pursues a program that could
enable it to build nuclear arms.' Of these same respondents, 53 percent
believe it was not worth going to war against IraqOne wonders if Americans
ever think of the consequences of the rash actions they favor."
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- Muddled Americans, more concerned with the literary fabrications
of a second rate writer than the outright lies of top Republicans and Democrat
policymakers, might be excused for thinking that the current dozen casualties
a day is a small price to pay for gas. Bomb Iran? Sure, just keep that
gas coming and we'll believe whatever lies you tell us about the Middle
East. Meanwhile the little white lies of fictionalized memoirs captures
all of our outrage.
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- Richard Falk, writing for The Nation, (Storm Clouds Over
Iran) observed: "The United States and Israel, with the cooperation
of some European countries, have been stoking a climate of fear to justify
a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities."
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- The Neocons used this exact same blueprint, based on
outright lies and fabrications, to justify an attack on Iraq. Predictably,
they've recycled the same plan to justify an attack on Iran.
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- But suppose the hardliners in Iran refuse to roll over
for the US hardliners? Suppose several other countries with a vested interest
in Iran refuse to comply? China especially, with her huge need for oil,
but also Pakistan and India; suppose they balk at the clever yet transparent
schemes of the US?
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- Let us "war game" then through the first few
days and weeks of the probable war with Iran. What can we expect?
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- US/Israel warplanes and guided missiles attack Iran
installations. Iran counter-attacks. Oil shipments in the Persian Gulf
cease altogether. Gas prices rise. Iran retaliates against the US and Israel.
Israel and the US strike back. Military and civilian casualties rise. China
attacks Taiwan while we're occupied with Iran. Shiites revolt in Iraq.
US troops retaliate. Casualties rise. Gas prices rise higher. Iran loses
her entire air force and navy in less than a week while Washington stop-losses
all US servicemen. Enlistments drop. The draft is reinstated. Gas prices
continue to rise. Exxon-Mobil reports record-setting profits for the third
quarter in a row. 2008 Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and John
McCain clamor for more US troops in the Middle East (but where are these
troops to come from?). Another US Navy ship is sunk. Another alleged Iranian
nuke site is bombed. Two small cities in Israel are struck by Iranian missiles.
Four major cities in Iran are saturation-bombed. Halliburton is awarded
future rebuilding contracts in Iran. US military bases suffer devastating
attacks from Iranian missiles and Shia and Sunni guerillas in Iraq. Entire
divisions of US-trained Iraq guards desert, with their equiptment. Gas
prices continue to rise. Gas rationing begins.
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- Are we beginning to see a pattern here?
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- You don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the
wind blows, or an advanced degree from a war college to foresee any outcome
to an ill-advised military attack on a well-armed foe. And the Neocon war
planners, most of whom never went to war or within a mile of a military
academy, are nothing if not transparent, predictable and disastrous.
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- Former US Marine Drew Raines wrote: "I've read your
books, and you have been right on point from day one. This latest is not
only astounding, but I ask, what are we to do? What real Leader do we
have on a national scale to promote? There is a remnant of Vietnam Marines
who feel in their hearts an internal war is brewing before our eyes. Again,
what are we to do?"
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- Let the Neocons know that WE know exactly what they are
planning. Forewarned is forearmed. The more people who know and understand
the Neocon plan beforehand, the less likely they are to carry it out. After
all, Pulitzer prize-winning author Seymour Hersh and former US Marine Scot
Ritter proclaimed loudly, last June, that the Neocons planned a preemptive
attack against Iran, and the Neocons backed down.
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- If they backed down once they may back down again.
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- Former USAF veteran and amateur historian Douglas Herman
writes regularly for Rense and is the author of the provocative suspense
novel, The Guns Of Dallas
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