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Bush's Dilemma

10-2-5
 
* Bush and his vindicators still insist that that the occupation of Iraq would spread democracy and stability in the Middle East. That naïve declaration couldn"t be farther from the truth. Not only is Iraq in the clutches of a civil war, the US-led invasion threatens to destabilise the whole of the Middle East, if not possibly the world. It might have irrevocably done so already.
 
* More and more it appears that, as is the case in Iraq, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is content to slowly bleed the US.
 
* Preoccupied with the carnage being wrought in Iraq, the US warlords became complacent over their Afghan policy and allowed the Taliban to regroup.
 
* In a grim landscape, a single reality stands out clearly: not only is the US presence the main source of civilian casualties both in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is also the primary contributor to the threat of civil war in Iraq. The longer they wait to withdraw, the worse the situation would become for the occupation.
 
 
 
By Ghulam Asghar Khan
The Frontier Post - Pakistan
10-3-5
 
In a highly significant decision "German Federal Court" ruled that the assault launched by the US and its allies against Iraq, was a clear war of aggression that violated the International Law.
 
The Judges scrupulously demonstrated that the German government, in contrast to its public protestations, had lend a hand in the aggression against Iraq without having any legal right to do so. Although the decision was made 3-months back but was barely mentioned in the German media. The judgement and its legal arguments have only just been made public. The court in particular referred to Article 4, Paragraph 4 of the UN Charter, which classifies "every" threat and use of military force against another nation as an act of aggression. It specifies only two exceptions: a formal resolution of the UN Security Council and for self-defence purposes. Neither of these was the case with Iraq. In particular, the US had no legal basis for attacking Iraq based on previous UN resolutions that it itself had introduced. UN Resolution 678 of 1990 had only authorised the expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait and the ceasefire Resolution 687 in 1991 certified that this aim was achieved.
 
As per this Resolution, Iraq was forbidden to use poisonous gases or other biological weapons and renewed the demand for Iraq to maintain a clear distance from 'international terrorism'. This Resolution was formally accepted by Iraq, and all the conditions laid down were not violated by Baghdad during the following 10-years when Iraq was ravaged by continual Anglo US bombings.
 
The court observed that the Security Council did threaten 'serious consequences', but it did not make explicit what form they would take. On the contrary, Resolution 1441 (which was made the basis for the unilateral attack) expressed unmistakably that the matter was yet to be determined by the Security Council. The court argued that the resolution did not give a free hand for military action, but rather left the decision about any consequences to the UN. It did not consider the objection valid that the resolution text was interpreted differently by the US and UK. It stated, "For the determination of what the UN Security Council had decided in one of its resolutions, what is decisive is not what government representatives 'thought' about the proceedings and resolutions themselves. It is far more dependent on what was actually laid down in the text of the agreed resolution and mental reservations of governments or their representatives were not valid insofar as international law was concerned.
 
As against that, President Bush embarked upon his latest campaign to convince the US citizens that the illegal and unwarranted invasion/occupation of Iraq was worth the sacrifice paid by other people's children. His first pro-war pep rally was in Utah at the convention of Veterans of foreign wars, where he explained that the only way to honour about 2,000 US troops killed in Iraq was to stay there and finish the task. In other words, the only way to ensure those soldiers who died in Iraq did not die in vain was to send more to their deaths. The logic of needless death honoured through more needless deaths was just appalling.
 
No matter how bad things might be in Iraq, and no matter how dim the prospects are for Iraq's future, Bush & Co. still manage to look the public straight in the eye, smirk and insist that the decision to invade was a good one. Not realising that by invading Iraq, they had opened up "Pandora's Box" with global consequences. Bush and his vindicators still insist that that the occupation of Iraq would spread democracy and stability in the Middle East. That naïve declaration couldn't be farther from the truth. Not only is Iraq in the clutches of a civil war, the US-led invasion threatens to destabilise the whole of the Middle East, if not possibly the world. It might have irrevocably done so already.
 
By most definitions and standards, Iraq is already facing the pangs of civil war. Whether defined as an internal conflict; or as an organised violence designed to change the government; or as a systematic and coordinated sectarian-based conflict; the requirements of civil war have long since been satisfied. People of Iraq aren't merely growing increasingly alienated from each other, as well as progressively opposed to US-led forces. Iraq's estrangement from rest of the Middle East and the Arab world is widening as well. Seen more and more as a proxy of the Iranian government, the Shiite/Kurd dominated Iraq finds itself at odds with the Sunni-dominated Middle East.
 
Strangely enough, not a single Middle East nation has sent an ambassador to Baghdad since after the US invasion. And despite promises to do so, the Arab League (of which Iraq was a founder) has yet to open its office in Baghdad, for which Iraqi diplomacy, or lack thereof, is also to blame. There are many reasons other than sectarianism for Iraq's alienation from the Middle East and Arab nations, security being the foremost. From chiding Qatar for sending aid to Katrina victims but not to Iraq, to arguing with Kuwait over border issues, to blaming Syria for the insurgency, Iraq's fledgling government seems to have taken diplomatic lessons from the Bush administration.
 
Iraq's varied relationships with Middle Eastern nations will be immensely significant should Iraq descend further into civil war. For instance, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan would most likely come to the support of Iraqi Sunnis. There are already signs that the US-led invasion has vexed Saudi Arabia's Sunni population. According to a recent study, the invasion of Iraq has radicalised previously non-militant Saudis, sickened by the occupation of an Arab nation by non-Arabs. Iran would in turn increase its already staunch support for the Shiites. While, Turkey would also likely be drawn in, hoping to prevent any Kurdish move to spill across the border in quest of establishing a Kurdish autonomous state.
 
Moreover, Iraq's violent Shiite-Sunni discord, which was non-existent before the occupation, could easily spark similar strife in Middle East countries like Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In such a worst scenario, Bush's illegal, ill conceived, myopic and naïve venture in Iraq would result in total chaos not just in Iraq and the Middle East, but the world over.
 
At any rate, while Bush tries to sell the US public on more death and destruction in Iraq, another, older war continues in Afghanistan. It is a war that has, to date, claimed the lives of 230 US soldiers and innumerable civilians. It is a so-called legal war, fought in a country actually tied to the attacks against the US on September 11, 2001. It is America's forgotten war, which again is gaining momentum. While the Taliban are no longer officially in charge of Afghanistan, they are not yet defeated either.
 
Instead, a neo-Taliban insurgency has emerged that instead of fighting the US troops head-on has developed guerrilla tactics such as operating in small units, staging hit-and-run ambushes and mixing with the local population. More and more it appears that, as is the case in Iraq, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is content to slowly bleed the US. Thus, rather than having been destroyed as touted by the US administration, the Talibans have merely been transformed.
 
The evidence suggests that Taliban's bleeding strategy is becoming increasingly successful. Over the year, attacks with mines and improvised explosive devices increased 40% and picking up from their brethren in Iraq, the 'suicidal bomb attacks' is another lethal addition to unnerve the ISAF and Afghan government forces. Preoccupied with the carnage being wrought in Iraq, the US warlords became complacent over their Afghan policy and allowed the Taliban to regroup. As a consequence, the US now must fight ruthless insurgencies on two fronts. But on a grim landscape, a single reality stands out clearly: not only is the US presence the main source of civilian casualties both in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is also the primary contributor to the threat of civil war in Iraq. The longer they wait to withdraw, the worse the situation would become for the occupation. There still is time for the US to change its state of war strategy on Iraq and Afghanistan to avoid lurking catastrophe. That, of course, would require real leadership, which the Americans are sorely lacking. "A leader who doesn't hesitate before he sends his nation to war is not fit to be a leader", said none other than Golda Meir, Israeli Prime Minister from 1969 to 1974.
 
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