- "The District Epizootic Committee has received three
signals of dead birds, found in the region - a heron in Pleven, a stork
in Disevitsa village and a hen in Debovo village. The birds have been collected
and sent in for analysis."
- The above description of three dead birds in three regions
of Bulgaria is not a surprise. Bulgaria lies between Romania and Turkey
and the three locations cited above begin to draw a line along the western
side of the Black Sea (see map).
- Confirmation of H5N1 wild bird flu is not assured in
these three instances, but confirmation of H5N1 in Bulgaria is likely in
the coming weeks, as is confirmation in virtually all countries adjacent
to the Black and Caspian Seas.
- Birds that summer in Siberia winter in these areas and
H5N1 infections have been widespread in Russia. As H5N1 is reported fro
the first time in these European countries, it will be increasingly clear
that H5N1 is greatly expanding its geographical range via long range migratory
birds, and in the next 12 months will likely cover the world.
- This dramatic expansion increases the likelihood of recombination
to produce a lethal H5N1 that is efficiently spread from human-to-human
and igniting a major pandemic.
- © 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.