- Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers
of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth
is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.
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- The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir
Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James
Annan.
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- The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in
the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the
Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of
sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is
expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian
duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.
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- Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer,
in Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and
I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be
a nice top-up to my pension."
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- To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed
to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate
centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between
2012 and 2017.
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- If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000
(now equivalent to about £5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues
to warm, the money will go the other way.
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- The bet is the latest in an increasingly popular field
of scientific wagers, and comes after a string of climate change sceptics
have refused challenges to back their controversial ideas with cash.
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- Dr Annan first challenged Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is dubious about the extent
of human activity influencing the climate. Professor Lindzen had been willing
to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 years.
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- No bet was agreed on that; Dr Annan said Prof Lindzen
wanted odds of 50-1 against falling temperatures, so would win $10,000
if the Earth cooled but pay out only £200 if it warmed. Seven other
prominent climate change sceptics also failed to agree betting terms.
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- In May, during BBC Radio 4's Today programme, the environmental
activist and Guardian columnist George Monbiot challenged Myron Ebell,
a climate sceptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, in Washington
DC, to a £5,000 bet. Mr Ebell declined, saying he had four children
to put through university and did not want to take risks.
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- Most climate change sceptics dispute the findings of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which suggest that human
activity will drive global temperatures up by between 1.4C and 5.8C by
the end of the century.
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- Others, such as the Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg, argue
that, although global warming is real, there is little we can do to prevent
it and that we would be better off trying to adapt to living in an altered
climate.
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- Dr Annan said bets like the one he made with the Russian
sceptics are one way to confront the ideas. He also suggests setting up
a financial-style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in
the outcome of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against
future risk.
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- "Betting on sea level rise would have a very real
relevance to Pacific islanders," he said. "By betting on rapid
sea-level rise, they would either be able to stay in their homes at the
cost of losing the bet if sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet
and have money to pay for sea defences or relocation if sea level rise
was rapid."
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- Similar agricultural commodity markets already allow
farmers to hedge against bad weather that ruins harvests.
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- http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1552092,00.html
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