- George Bush's personal interest in Mongolia might be
thought limited. Yet, when the country's then leader visited Washington
last year, the US president enthusiastically declared "a new era of
comprehensive partnership".
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- Mongolia's 2.6 million people occupy an area of 604,000
square miles (the UK has nearly 60 million people in 95,000 square miles).
While Mongolia has oil, its main resource is 20 million sheep and goats.
But ruminants were not the reason Mr Bush was all riled up.
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- Mongolia is geographically sandwiched between China and
Russia. And it has been steadily drawn into what Walter Russell Mead of
the Council on Foreign Relations in New York calls the "strategic
net" being woven by the US in Asia to "persuade China to keep
its ambitions within reason".
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- Alarmed by China's rapid rise, and to a lesser extent
by its developing collaboration with Russia, the US is pushing back. Results
range from a sudden warming of relations with Vietnam to plans for "strategic
partnership" with India.
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- "China has become one of the largest traders and
investors with many Asian countries," Christopher Hill, assistant
secretary of state for east Asia, told the Senate in June. But he noted
that while US investment in south-east Asian countries totalled over $85bn
(about£48bn), China's amounted to only $2bn.
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- While Beijing wielded influence in places such as North
Korea, Burma and Cambodia, Mr Hill pointed to America's "strong and
enduring alliances with Japan, Australia, South Korea, Thailand and the
Philippines". In terms of global power politics, he suggested, it
was no contest.
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- The corollary to stepped-up US efforts to contain and
integrate China is steady American pressure on Russia via Moscow's former
Soviet satellites.
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- Even as US forces were ordered out of Uzbekistan, which
has agreed energy deals with Moscow and Beijing, leases on US military
bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were renewed last month.
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- And despite Vladimir Putin's warnings to foreign-funded
NGOs not to dabble in politics in the former Soviet republics, Washington
shows no sign of backing off.
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- To the west, the US and its favoured ally, Poland, seem
to be preparing another pro-democracy front in Belarus, where Alexander
Lukashenko's authoritarian regime faces elections next year.
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- And in Georgia and Ukraine, scene of the original western-backed
"colour revolutions" that the Kremlin fears could be emulated
at home, the US is being urged to do more.
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- Georgia's pro-western leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, claimed
recently that Washington had pledged to resolve Russian-fuelled separatist
problems in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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- "We have a political understanding that something
should be done and there can be some kind of US role," he told the
Wall Street Journal Europe.
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- America undoubtedly faces a long-term battle for influence
in the Asia-Pacific area. But, says Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution
in Washington, there are present-day limits to what even Beijing and Moscow
combined can do in response to the US's "soft power" offensives.
"China has got a lot of internal problems such as unrest in the rural
areas and energy is its Achilles heel," Ms Hill said. To keep growing,
China needed to keep vital export markets open, principally in the US.
For this and other reasons, for example, experts say direct confrontation
over Taiwan is unlikely.
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- "Russia gets infuriated with the US but at the same
time it is incredibly worried about China. Some [Russian] military analysts
say, 'China could turn against us but we are selling them all these arms.
Is this sensible?'" Ms Hill said.
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- The upshot, according to a UK Defence Academy study by
Mark Smith, is that while pursuing closer ties, "neither side has
any interest in creating a formal anti-American alliance".
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- While China may ultimately go it alone, "fear of
being marginalised has played a large part in driving the Putin leadership
towards strategic partnership with the US and the EU," Mr Smith said.
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- In this sense, closer China-Russia collaboration reflects
current weakness, not strength. As the US spins its web, expect more Mongolian-style
mutton diplomacy.
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- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2005
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- http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,7369,1545911,00.html
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