- A year ago the supposed handover of power by the US occupation
authority to an Iraqi interim government led by Iyad Allawi was billed
as a turning point in the violent history of post-Saddam Iraq.
-
- It has turned out to be no such thing. Most of Iraq is
today a bloody no-man's land beset by ruthless insurgents, savage bandit
gangs, trigger-happy US patrols and marauding government forces.
-
- On 28 June 2004 Mr Allawi was all smiles. "In a
few days, Iraq will radiate with stability and security," he promised
at the handover ceremony. That mood of optimism did not last long.
-
- On Sunday the American Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld,
told a US news programme that the ongoing insurgency could last "five,
six, eight, ten, twelve years".
-
- Yesterday in London, after meeting Tony Blair, the new
Iraqi Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, tried to be more upbeat, commenting:
"I think two years will be enough and more than enough to establish
security".
-
- Tonight President George Bush will make his most important
address since the invasion, speaking to troops at the US army base at Fort
Bragg, North Carolina. He is expected to seek to assure increasingly sceptical
Americans that he has a plan to prevail in Iraq, and that the US is not
trapped in a conflict as unwinnable as the one in Vietnam, three decades
ago.
-
- The news now from Iraq is only depressing. All the roads
leading out of the capital are cut. Iraqi security and US troops can only
get through in heavily armed convoys. There is a wave of assassinations
of senior Iraqi officers based on chillingly accurate intelligence. A deputy
police chief of Baghdad was murdered on Sunday. A total of 52 senior Iraqi
government or religious figures have been assassinated since the handover.
In June 2004 insurgents killed 42 US soldiers; so far this month 75 have
been killed.
-
- The "handover of power" last June was always
a misnomer. Much real power remained in the hands of the US. Its 140,000
troops kept the new government in business. Mr Allawi's new cabinet members
became notorious for the amount of time they spent out of the country.
Safely abroad they often gave optimistic speeches predicting the imminent
demise of the insurgency.
-
- Despite this the number of Iraqi military and police
being killed every month has risen from 160 at the handover to 219 today.
-
- There were two further supposed turning points over the
past year. The first was the capture by US Marines of the rebel stronghold
of Fallujah last November after a bloody battle which left most of the
city of 300,000 people in ruins. In January there was the general election
in which the Shia and Kurds triumphed.
-
- Both events were heavily covered by the international
media. But such is the danger for television and newspaper correspondents
in Iraq that their capacity to report is more and more limited. The fall
of Fallujah did not break the back of the resistance. Their best fighters
simply retreated to fight again elsewhere. Many took refuge in Baghdad.
At the same time as the insurgents lost Fallujah they captured most of
Mosul, a far larger city. Much of Sunni Iraq remained under their sway.
-
- At the handover of power the number of foreign fighters
in the insurgency was estimated in the "low hundreds". That figure
has been revised up to at least 1,000 and the overall figure for the number
of insurgents is put at 16,000.
-
- The election may have been won by the Shia and Kurds
but it was boycotted by the five million Sunnis and they are the core of
the rebellion. It took three months to put together a new government as
Sunni, Shia, Kurds and Americans competed for their share of the cake.
For all their declarations about Iraqi security, the US wanted to retain
as much power in its own hands as it could. When the Shia took over the
interior ministry its intelligence files were hastily transferred to the
US headquarters in the Green Zone.
-
- To most ordinary Iraqis in Baghdad it is evident that
life over the past year has been getting worse. The insurgents seem to
have an endless supply of suicide bombers whose attacks ensure a permanent
sense of threat. In addition the necessities of life are becoming more
difficult to obtain. At one moment last winter there were queues of cars
outside petrol stations several miles long.
-
- The sense of fear in Baghdad is difficult to convey.
Petrol is such a necessity because people need to pick up their children
from school because they are terrified of them being kidnapped. Parents
mob the doors of schools and swiftly become hysterical if they cannot find
their children. Doctors are fleeing the country because so many have been
held for ransom, some tortured and killed because their families could
not raise the money.
-
- Homes in Baghdad are currently getting between six and
eight hours' electricity a day. Nothing has improved at the power stations
since the hand-over of security a year ago. In a city where the temperature
yesterday was 40C, people swelter without air conditioning because the
omnipresent small generators do not produce enough current to keep them
going. In recent weeks there has also been a chronic shortage of water.
-
- Some Iraqis have benefited. Civil servants and teachers
are better paid, though prices are higher. But Iraqis in general hoped
that their standard of living would improve dramatically after the fall
of Saddam Hussein and it has not.
-
- Adding to the sense of fear in Baghdad is the growth
of sectarianism, the widening gulf between Sunni and Shia. Shia mosques
come under attack from bombers. Members of both communities are found murdered
beside the road, in escalating rounds of tit-for-tat killings.
-
- The talks between US officials and some resistance groups
revealed in the past few days probably does not mean very much for the
moment. The fanatical Islamic and militant former Baathists and nationalists
who make up the cutting edge of insurgency are not in the mood to compromise.
They are also very fragmented. But the talks may indicate a growing sense
among US military and civilian officials that they cannot win this war.
-
- Patrick Cockburn was awarded the 2005 Martha Gellhorn
prize for war reporting in recognition of his writing on Iraq over the
past year
-
- Then and now
-
- Average daily attacks by insurgents
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 0
-
- Handover June 2004: 45
-
- Now: 70
-
- Analysis:
- Figures should be viewed with caution because US
- military often does not record attacks if there are no
- American casualties.
-
- Total number of coalition troops killed
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 0
-
- Handover June 2004: 982
-
- Now: 1,930
-
- Analysis:
- Number of US troops killed increased sharply during
- Fallujah fighting in April and November 2004.
-
- Iraqi civilians killed
-
- Pre-war March 2003: n/a
-
- Handover June 2004: 10,000
-
- Now: 60,800 (includes 23,000 crime-related deaths)
-
- Analysis:
- Estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths have varied widely
- because the US military does not count them.
-
- Electricity supply (megawatts generated)
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 3,958
-
- Handover June 2004: 4,293
-
- Now: 4,035
-
- Analysis:
- Coalition is way behind its goal of providing 6,000
- megawatts by July 2004. Most Iraqis do not have a
- reliable electricity supply.
-
- Unemployed
-
- Pre-war March 2003: n/a
-
- Handover June 2004: 40%
-
- Now: 40%
-
- Analysis:
- More than a third of young people are unemployed, a
- cause for social unrest. Many security men stay home,
- except on payday.
-
- Telephones
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 833,000 (landlines only)
-
- Handover June 2004: 1.2m (includes mobiles)
-
- Now: 3.1m
-
- Analysis:
- Landlines are extremely unreliable and mobile phone
- system could be improved.
-
- Primary school access
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 3.6m
-
- Handover June 2004: 4.3m
-
- Now: n/a
-
- Analysis:
- 83 per cent of boys and 79 per cent of girls in
- primary schools. But figures mask declining literacy
- and failure rate.
-
- Oil production (barrels a day)
-
- Pre-war March 2003: 2.5m
-
- Handover June 2004: 2.29m
-
- Now: 2.20m
-
- Analysis:
- Sustainability of Iraqi oilfields has been jeopardised
- to boost output. Oil facilities regularly targeted by
- insurgents.
-
- ©2005 Independent News & Media (UK) Ltd.
-
- http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=650186
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