- Just a few weeks ago, in the wake of Iraq's momentous
elections, the insurgency appeared to be ebbing away.
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- Millions of defenceless Iraqi voters seemed to push back
the militants in a way America's military had failed to do.
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- A US official in Baghdad predicted the end of "mass
casualty attacks", while in Washington and London politicians began
to talk of starting to bring troops home. But all that has changed this
month. With the swearing in of a new government led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari,
the militants appear to have found a vicious new vitality.
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- The escalation is a testament to the insurgents' ability
to regroup and recover from setbacks. Regardless of how many thousands
are killed or captured, more seem to take their places.
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- Senior western sources admit that the US and its allies
are struggling to fill large intelligence gaps. "What we do not know
about the insurgency is appalling," said one well-placed source. "How
do they finance themselves? What is their logistical structure? We still
do not have the answers.
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- "The US needs to reorganise its intelligence system.
Most of the resources - platforms, analysts - are at the national and strategic
level. We have to decentralise and get the assets down to the tactical
level. We rely on technical means but the insurgency disarms technology.
It is mainly a human endeavour."
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- The US is trying to build Iraq's fledgling security forces
and new intelligence bodies but, judging from the insurgents' ability to
kill police chiefs and kidnap regional governors, there is evidence that
the new Iraqi security apparatus is deeply penetrated by insurgent sympathisers.
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- There are unconfirmed stories of police chiefs being
appointed only to be turned against the coalition within months through
bribes and threats.
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- The policy of "de-Baathification" - the removal
of Baath party members from key government positions - is seen as a key
factor in provoking the ire of Iraq's Sunni population. But the recent
re-integration of ex-Baathists in the security forces is now raising questions
about their trustworthiness.
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- Washington is also convinced that many masterminds of
the insurgency, particularly its financiers, have found sanctuary in Syria.
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- According to one well-placed source, there are about
25 leaders sheltering in Syria with the knowledge of the Damascus regime
- a charge that President Bashar al-Assad rejects - and US commanders are
debating whether to use diplomatic or military action to stop them. There
are also reports of insurgent leaders slipping across the Iraq border into
neighbouring Jordan to hold co-ordination meetings.
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- Military commanders admitted long ago that there was
no military solution to the insurgency. The euphoria over the Jan 30 elections
raised hopes that a political deal could be found to stabilise the country
and allow the US to begin winding down the occupying force by the end of
this year. Many US American commanders are now bracing themselves for a
long stay.
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- © Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2005.
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- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml
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