- A final analysis of the intelligence fiasco over Iraq's
non-existent weapons of mass destruction will today focus blame on the
CIA and other spy agencies, largely clearing the White House and the Pentagon
of allegations that they shaped the intelligence to justify the invasion,
according to early accounts of the report.
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- The assessment by a presidential commission on WMD intelligence
follows 14 months of mostly secret inquiries in an undisclosed location
in Virginia. It reportedly concentrates on mistakes in a multi-agency assessment
in October 2002, the national intelligence estimate, which portrayed Saddam
Hussein's weapons programmes as a serious threat to the US.
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- A year-long search by the US Iraq survey group later
concluded that those programmes had collapsed more than a decade before
the invasion.
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- The commission is expected to release a 400-page unclassified
version of its report after delivering a complete version to George Bush
this morning. According to leaks, the commission found that many of the
intelligence shortcomings on Iraq are being repeated on Iran and North
Korea.
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- In all three cases, the commission is said to have found
that human intelligence - actual spies - are in short supply, and intelligence
has relied on satellite pictures, electronic intercepts, the testimony
of exiles and guesswork.
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- The Los Angeles Times yesterday quoted officials who
had read some of the unclassified report as saying it pointed to "glaring
gaps in core US intelligence" about nuclear programmes pursued by
Tehran and Pyongyang.
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- According to the Washington Post the report will recommend
that, in the light of "group think" over Iraq, dissent and debate
should be encouraged among the nation's 15 intelligence agencies.
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- However, there will be relatively little scrutiny of
alleged political pressure by senior administration officials to exaggerate
the WMD claims. "There's nothing really about shaping the intelligence,"
said an intelligence source in Washington familiar with the report.
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- A Senate inquiry into political manipulation of intelligence,
postponed until after the November elections, now appears to have been
quietly dropped by its Republican chairman, Pat Roberts.
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- Ray McGovern, a former CIA official and persistent government
critic, said the report was diverting the blame. "I see it as part
of the continuing attempt to blame the CIA and other intelligence agencies
and divert attention away from the White House and the Pentagon. It's worse
than Butler [the inquiry into British intelligence shortcomings], or anything
you've had over there."
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- Dick Cheney made several trips to the CIA's Langley headquarters
in the months before the war to discuss findings on Iraq's alleged WMD,
and the agency's ombudsman told the Senate that analysts had undergone
constant "hammering" to come up with a connection between al-Qaida
and Saddam.
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- However, none of the CIA employees who testified before
the Senate intelligence committee on the issue last year admitted changing
their analysis to suit the administration's wishes.
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- Today's report is expected to find that political pressure
was not a significant factor, although it will advocate the creation of
an ombudsman to hear from analysts who fear their work is being compromised,
according to the Washington Post.
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- It will reportedly include criticism of the Defence Intelligence
Agency and the National Security Agency, both under the Pentagon's control.
But the burden of blame will fall once more on the CIA.
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- "I'm told it is going to make the CIA look even
worse than before," said Melvin Goodman, a former CIA official. As
for top administration officials, Mr Goodman said: "It looks like
they're going to escape again."
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- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2005
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- http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1448738,00.html
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