- Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking
glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last
week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after
tomorrow. You don't believe it? Then read this...
-
- Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and
less hospitable world, are likely to play special attention to the first
few weeks of 2005. As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have
sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human
civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify
the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded.
-
- Last week, 200 of the world's leading climate scientists
- meeting at Tony Blair's request at the Met Office's new headquarters
at Exeter - issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate
change is taking place, and that time is running out.
-
- Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty
that tries to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year
delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough.
-
- The alarms have been going off since the beginning of
one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri - chairman
of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - told
a UN conference in Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming
has reached "dangerous" levels.
-
- Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based
at Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic
as the IPCC's worst predictions. And an international task force - also
reporting to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers
- concluded that we could reach "the point of no return" in a
decade.
-
- Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time
out - just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by
selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem - to warn that unless
governments take urgent action there "will be a disaster".
-
- But it was last week at the Met Office's futuristic glass
headquarters, incongruously set in a dreary industrial estate on the outskirts
of Exeter, that it all came together. The conference had been called by
the Prime Minister to advise him on how to "avoid dangerous climate
change". He needed help in persuading the world to prioritise the
issue this year during Britain's presidencies of the EU and the G8 group
of economic powers.
-
- The conference opened with the Secretary of State for
the Environment, Margaret Beckett, warning that "a significant impact"
from global warming "is already inevitable". It continued with
presentations from top scientists and economists from every continent.
These showed that some dangerous climate change was already taking place
and that catastrophic events once thought highly improbable were now seen
as likely (see panel). Avoiding the worst was technically simple and economically
cheap, they said, provided that governments could be persuaded to take
immediate action.
-
- About halfway through I realised that I had been here
before. In the summer of 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts gathered
in Vienna for an inquest into the accident at Chernobyl. The head of the
Russian delegation showed a film shot from a helicopter, and we suddenly
found ourselves gazing down on the red-hot exposed reactor core.
-
- It was all, of course, much less dramatic at Exeter.
But as paper followed learned paper, once again a group of world authorities
were staring at a crisis they had devoted their lives to trying to avoid.
-
- I am willing to bet there were few in the room who did
not sense their children or grandchildren standing invisibly at their shoulders.
The conference formally concluded that climate change was "already
occurring" and that "in many cases the risks are more serious
than previously thought". But the cautious scientific language scarcely
does justice to the sense of the meeting.
-
- We learned that glaciers are shrinking around the world.
Arctic sea ice has lost almost half its thickness in recent decades. Natural
disasters are increasing rapidly around the world. Those caused by the
weather - such as droughts, storms, and floods - are rising three times
faster than those - such as earthquakes - that are not.
-
- We learned that bird populations in the North Sea collapsed
last year, after the sand eels on which they feed left its warmer waters
- and how the number of scientific papers recording changes in ecosystems
due to global warming has escalated from 14 to more than a thousand in
five years.
-
- Worse, leading scientists warned of catastrophic changes
that once they had dismissed as "improbable". The meeting was
particularly alarmed by powerful evidence, first reported in The Independent
on Sunday last July, that the oceans are slowly turning acid, threatening
all marine life (see panel).
-
- Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic
Survey, presented new evidence that the West Antarctic ice sheet is beginning
to melt, threatening eventually to raise sea levels by 15ft: 90 per cent
of the world's people live near current sea levels. Recalling that the
IPCC's last report had called Antarctica "a slumbering giant",
he said: "I would say that this is now an awakened giant."
-
- Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois,
reported that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a "low
probability event", was now 45 per cent likely this century, and 70
per cent probable by 2200. If it comes sooner rather than later it will
be catastrophic for Britain and northern Europe, giving us a climate like
Labrador (which shares our latitude) even as the rest of the world heats
up: if it comes later it could be beneficial, moderating the worst of the
warming.
-
- The experts at Exeter were virtually unanimous about
the danger, mirroring the attitude of the climate science community as
a whole: humanity is to blame. There were a few sceptics at Exeter, including
Andrei Illarionov, an adviser to Russia's President Putin, who last year
called the Kyoto Protocol "an interstate Auschwitz". But in truth
it is much easier to find sceptics among media pundits in London or neo-cons
in Washington than among climate scientists. Even the few contrarian climatalogists
publish little research to support their views, concentrating on questioning
the work of others.
-
- Now a new scientific consensus is emerging - that the
warming must be kept below an average increase of two degrees centigrade
if catastrophe is to be avoided. This almost certainly involves keeping
concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main cause of climate change, below
400 parts per million.
-
- Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations
exceeding 370ppm and rising, but experts at the conference concluded that
we could go briefly above the danger level so long as we brought it down
rapidly afterwards. They added that this would involve the world reducing
emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 - and rich countries cutting theirs by
30 per cent by 2020.
-
- Economists stressed there is little time for delay. If
action is put off for a decade, it will need to be twice as radical; if
it has to wait 20 years, it will cost between three and seven times as
much.
-
- The good news is that it can be done with existing technology,
by cutting energy waste, expanding the use of renewable sources, growing
trees and crops (which remove carbon dioxide from the air) to turn into
fuel, capturing the gas before it is released from power stations, and
- maybe - using more nuclear energy.
-
- The better news is that it would not cost much: one estimate
suggested the cost would be about 1 per cent of Europe's GNP spread over
20 years; another suggested it meant postponing an expected fivefold increase
in world wealth by just two years. Many experts believe combatting global
warming would increase prosperity, by bringing in new technologies.
-
- The big question is whether governments will act. President
Bush's opposition to international action remains the greatest obstacle.
Tony Blair, by almost universal agreement, remains the leader with the
best chance of persuading him to change his mind.
-
- But so far the Prime Minister has been more influenced
by the President than the other way round. He appears to be moving away
from fighting for the pollution reductions needed in favour of agreeing
on a vague pledge to bring in new technologies sometime in the future.
-
- By then it will be too late. And our children and grandchildren
will wonder - as we do in surveying, for example, the drift into the First
World War - "how on earth could they be so blind?"
-
- WATER WARS
-
- What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water
resources as populations grow and rains fail.
-
- How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people
than at present are expected to live in countries where water is scarce
in the future, and global warming will make it worse.
-
- How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali
has long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not
oil.
-
- DISAPPEARING NATIONS
-
- What could happen? Low-lying island such as the Maldives
and Tuvalu - with highest points only a few feet above sea-level - will
disappear off the face of the Earth.
-
- How would this come about? As the world heats up, sea
levels are rising, partly because glaciers are melting, and partly because
the water in the oceans expands as it gets warmer.
-
- How likely is it? Inevitable. Even if global warming
stopped today, the seas would continue to rise for centuries. Some small
islands have already sunk for ever. A year ago, Tuvalu was briefly submerged.
-
- FLOODING
-
- What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay, many
other cities and vast areas of countries from Britain to Bangladesh disappear
under tens of feet of water, as the seas rise dramatically.
-
- How would this come about? Ice caps in Greenland and
Antarctica melt. The Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more
than 20ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft.
-
- How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely,
but this year reported that the melting of both ice caps had begun. It
will take hundreds of years, however, for the seas to rise that much.
-
- UNINHABITABLE EARTH
-
- What could happen? Global warming escalates to the point
where the world's whole climate abruptly switches, turning it permanently
into a much hotter and less hospitable planet.
-
- How would this come about? A process involving "positive
feedback" causes the warming to fuel itself, until it reaches a point
that finally tips the climate pattern over.
-
- How likely is it? Abrupt flips have happened in the prehistoric
past. Scientists believe this is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable
future, but increasingly they are refusing to rule it out.
-
- RAINFOREST FIRES
-
- What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such
as those in the Amazon, go up in flames, destroying the world's richest
wildlife habitats and releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to speed
global warming.
-
- How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted
in 1999 that much of the Amazon will dry out and die within 50 years, making
it ready for sparks - from humans or lightning - to set it ablaze.
-
- How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to
be right. Already there have been massive forest fires in Borneo and Amazonia,
casting palls of highly polluting smoke over vast areas.
-
- THE BIG FREEZE
-
- What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get much
colder because the Gulf Stream, which provides as much heat as the sun
in winter, fails.
-
- How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends fresh
water into the North Atlantic. The less salty water fails to generate the
underwater current which the Gulf Stream needs.
-
- How likely is it? About
-
- evens for a Gulf Steam failure this century, said scientists
last week.
-
- STARVATION
-
- What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa,
for example, as rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland turns
to desert, people flee in their millions in search of food.
-
- How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease
by up to 60 per cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in southern Africa
this century. By some estimates, Zambia could lose almost all its farms.
-
- How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles
both global warming and Africa's decline. Scientists agree that droughts
will increase in a warmer world.
-
- ACID OCEANS
-
- What could happen? The seas will gradually turn more
and more acid. Coral reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all life depends,
will die off. Much of the life of the oceans will become extinct.
-
- How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed half
the carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming, so far emitted by
humanity. This forms dilute carbonic acid, which attacks corals and shells.
-
- How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists
warn that the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented
for 20 million years. Some predict that the world's coral reefs will die
within 35 years.
-
- DISEASE
-
- What could happen? Malaria - which kills two million
people worldwide every year - reaches Britain with foreign travellers,
gets picked up by British mosquitos and becomes endemic in the warmer climate.
-
- How would this come about? Four of our 40 mosquito species
can carry the disease, and hundreds of travellers return with it annually.
The insects breed faster, and feed more, in warmer temperatures.
-
- How likely is it? A Department of Health study has suggested
it may happen by 2050: the Environment Agency has mentioned 2020. Some
experts say it is miraculous that it has not happened already.
-
- HURRICANES
-
- What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms
proliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas. Last September's repeated
battering of Florida and the Caribbean may be just a foretaste of what
is to come, say scientists.
-
- How would this come about? The storms gather their energy
from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur and threaten
areas where at present the seas are too cool for such weather.
-
- How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether
storms will get more frequent and whether the process has already begun.
-
- ©2005 Independent News & Media (UK) Ltd.
-
- http://news.independent.co.uk/
|
