- UK emergency services have been put on alert as the World
Health Organisation (WHO) warns that a potentially deadly from of bird
flu that affects humans could spark a global epidemic this winter.
-
- An emergency planning document spelling out the
disastrous
likely consequences of such an epidemic has already been distributed to
government agencies.
-
- Although only relatively few human cases of the flu
strain
- known as H5N1 - have been reported, the WHO believes that if it took
hold it could spread dangerously quickly.
-
- Dr Jim McMenamin, consultant epidemiologist with the
NHS's Health Protection Scotland in charge of the flu surveillance system
in this country, told the Sunday Herald that it is ëëa question
of when rather than if we get an influ enza pandemic."
-
- He added: "The globalisation of culture has lead
to the globalisation of disease. International air travel means that
infection
can be just a few hours away. All it takes is just one person to serve
as a seed."
-
- The emergency planning document reveals that Britain
is desperately unprepared for such an epidemic. At present there are no
drugs to protect humans from H5N1, and it is expected to take at least
six months to make a vaccine.
-
- In human cases reported so far, the death rate has been
chillingly high. In Thailand 17 people were infected, of whom 12 died.
In Vietnam, 27 caught the disease and only seven lived.
-
- A Pandemic Influenza Plan has been drawn up and
circulated
to all health boards and NHS trusts under the auspices of the Cabinet
Office's
Civil Contingencies Group on Pandemic Planning.
-
- It states: "concerns about pandemic influenza are
at an all-time high", and suggests that "a minimum of 25% of
the population will become ill" and "10% to 35% of the workforce
may be absent from work."
-
- One section reads: "Mortality is likely to be high
- estimated at 1% of the total population." The global death toll
of the pandemic could be between 50 and 100 million.
-
- The UK government believes high levels of death and
illness
could lead to public disorder. Quarantine, travel res trictions and the
issuing of face masks are all being considered as protective
measures.
-
- A large number of school children could be affected,
with working parents having to take time off to care for them. Schools
could be shut down during the outbreak. Every element of industry and
services
could be severely affected.
-
- Under the heading "Societal Disruption" the
document says the government "needs to consider maintenance of
essential
services such as ... utilities [and] communication; management of mass
casualties; maintenance of public order; the role of police and armed
forces".
-
- A Scottish Executive health spokesman said: "We
are well aware of the potential risk of a flu pandemic, and we have been
working closely for some time with the rest of the UK on ways in which
we can minimise risk and control any outbreak."
-
- ©2004 newsquest (sunday herald) limited. all rights
reserved
-
- http://www.sundayherald.com/46866
|
