- LONDON - 2005 promises to
be a very interesting year. So I've looked deep into my crystal ball to
discern what major stories the new year will bring:
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- The biggest problem the world faces this new year is
the continuing fall of the US dollar. The Bush Administration's reckless
spending, ruinously expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (now costing
as much as the Vietnam War), America's galloping trade deficit and credit
spending frenzy are creating a very dangerous economic storm.
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- It's difficult to see how a serious economic crisis can
be averted unless the US government slashes spending and American consumers
stop buying cheap imports, start supporting their own domestic industries,
and start saving. History shows that spending booms fuelled by cheap credit
always explode and produce recession.
-
- Japan and China's central banks may give up trying to
artificially shore up the US dollar, as they have been, by buying US currency
and securities. A plunging dollar could cause foreign investors to start
dumping US securities and assets. The result: a potential worldwide financial
crisis that could collapse the housing bubble, cause interest rates to
soar, send securities markets into freefall.
-
- China's banking system is a house of cards. Uncontrolled
credit expansion has fueled China's property boom and international buying
spree. Banks are swamped by bad, non-performing loans made to huge, money-losing
state-owned corporations. Collapse of China's insolvent banking system
would threaten world financial markets and trade.
-
- The deadly tsunami that hit India, Sri Lanka, Burma,
Thailand and Indonesia will have long-term negative effects on those nation's
economies and public health - in spite of huge amounts of foreign aid that
are pouring in.
-
- Experience with past disasters shows widescale theft
of donated food, medicines and money, a surge in corruption, and diversion
of relief supplies long before they ever reach the most needy. The tsunami
hit two civil war zones, Aceh in northern Sumatra and Sri Lanka. Aid distribution
in both nations could become a dangerous bone of contention between warring
factions.
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- President George Bush, who remained mute about the disaster
for 72 hours, and at first promised only $15 million in aid, lost a chance
to help restore America's battered reputation in the Islamic World by rushing
help to Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation.
-
- The US-led occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is a disaster
for all concerned. Both wars are slowly being lost. The big question in
2005 is if and how George Bush will extricate the US from this US $6.5
billion per month catastrophe. January elections in Iraq won't resolve
this huge mess, any more than rigged elections did this fall in Afghanistan.
-
- `Terrorism' - the insurgency against US domination of
the Muslim World and its resources - will intensify even if Osama bin Laden
is captured or killed. He has created a new, powerful ideological movement
that will continue to shake the Muslim World and challenge its corrupt,
autocratic rulers and their foreign sponsors.
-
- As the Bush Administration gets sucked ever deeper into
its disastrous crusade against the Muslim world, it may - possibly with
Israel - attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure, or invade Syria. An attack
on Iran would leave the already over-stretched US garrison in Iraq trapped
amid a sea of hostile Shia - as well as Sunnis.
-
- A real, viable peace between Israel and the Palestinians
seems unlikely. Israel's PM Sharon already has everything he wants, and,
according to US National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, has `wrapped
George Bush around his little finger.' So why make concessions? Palestinians
will remain trapped in their giant, open-air prison while the Muslim World
vents its fury on the United States.
-
- Now that Vladimir Putin has crushed all domestic political
and business opposition, his control over Russia is absolute. Only the
courageous Chechen mujihadin have resisted Putin's restoration of Kremlin
autocracy. Putin is determined to rebuild the old Soviet Union, starting
with Ukraine which, in spite of the recent victory of pro-western forces,
will come under intense economic and political pressure from Moscow.
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- The Bush-Putin anti-Islamic alliance will strengthen,
with China an increasingly active member. By regaining state control of
Russia's oil industry, Putin is poised to become a kingpin of world oil,
even an equal to the Saudi royals - if he can raise enough cash to tap
his nation's vast but remote deposits.
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- The European Union, for all its growing pains, economic
doldrums, and bureaucratic obesity, has replaced the United States as the
world's champion of human rights and support for civilized world order.
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- By contrast, under George Bush, the US has become a reactionary
power devoted to protecting the status quo in league with Britain, Russia,
China and India. In short, a re-run of the Holy Alliance of 1815 in which
Europe's autocrats sought to protect their power and privileges, and halt
the rise of bourgeois democracy.
-
- Look for an increasingly independent-minded Europe and
China to draw closer strategically as a result of the Bush Administration's
aggressive, unilateralist policies. Russia will play both sides, backing
the US in its anti-Islamic campaigns, and, more discreetly, China, in opposing
US influence in East Asia. European arms may begin to flow to China in
2005.
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- Revolution seems already under way in Saudi Arabia. The
US-backed royal family will be increasingly besieged in 2005. As for US
claims it will promote democracy in the Muslim World, any honest votes
there will produce pro-Islamic parties advocating opposition to Israel,
higher oil prices, and eviction of US influence from the region.
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- So, no true democracy, just US-implemented `guided democracy'
in Iraq, meaning a Vichy-style regime that keeps US bases, sells oil cheap,
makes nice to Israel, and allows US firms to exploit Iraq's wealth.
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- http://www.bigeye.com/foreignc.htm
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