- In a recent interview with CBS television, US Secretary
of State Colin Powell predicted that "the insurgency will not end".
He went on to say that "the insurgency will continue and the insurgency
will have to be defeated by coalition forces, but increasingly the insurgency
will be defeated and brought under control, if not completely defeated,
by Iraqi forces that we are building up as rapidly as we can."
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- So, there you have it from the oracle at Foggy Bottom.
To cover all possible outcomes, Powell came up with three scenarios. The
Iraqi insurgency could continue - which by definition means that it would
survive undefeated. Or coalition forces will vanquish the rebels in some
epic battle like Fallujah - which was supposed to decapitate the insurgency.
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- The third and most unlikely outcome is that the ill-trained
40,000 man Iraqi army will put down the insurgency.
- If this was a multiple choice test, the correct answer
could be 'none of the above'.
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- Middle Eastern wars have a way of extending their shelf
life way beyond their official expiration dates. "Mission Accomplished"
signs are best reserved for later use. Predictions about final outcomes
will need to be modified by many interim outcomes that tend to baffle and
disorient the most astute observer.
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- A year ago, after the capture of Saddam, the administration
and their mass media barkers insisted that the insurgency would collapse.
It only got stronger and more tenacious.
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- With the bearded lady of Tikrit safely in American hands,
the rebels were assured that the dictator would not return to power when
the occupation forces left Iraq. Notice that none of the many insurgent
groups have ever demanded Saddam's release.
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- Every few days - regardless of what transpires on the
ground - some administration official comes up with a new assessment of
who the insurgents are. One week, they are identified as Saddam loyalists
and Bathists. A week later - they are Syrian or Iranian operatives. The
following day, we are informed that they are followers of Bin Laden - many
of them foreigners.
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- Before the slaughter in Fallujah - the Pentagon went
so far as to claim that Chechens were holed up in the town. The whole mess
is often blamed on Zarqawi - who seems to claims credit for virtually every
attack against the occupation forces.
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- One can safely assume that others - including foreign
intelligence agencies like the Mossad - could be doing Bush a few little
favors by painting the Iraqi insurgents as nothing more than an Al-Qaeda
brigade.
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- It is worth noting that after the battle in Fallujah,
the Pentagon produced little evidence of any foreign fighters. In fact,
the vast majority of the estimated 1,500 casualties were not just Iraqis
but residents of Fallujah. Even so-called 'foreigners' are most likely
part of the large immigrant Arab communities that have long lived and worked
in Iraq.
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- The barber who clips my hair in Cairo lived in Al Anbar
province for nine years. The Iraqis didn't consider him a foreigner - he
was just another hair stylist. When Fallujah was attacked - he was in tears.
As the Arabs say, they had shared 'bread and salt' together. They were
his people.
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- It should be plain to any fool that this is a native
insurgency. Yet, we have an administration in Washington fighting an enemy
that they have yet to properly identify.
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- We are witnessing a Bush fiasco that is very similar
to the non-existent WMDs. Once again, the phenomenon of 'Group Think' -
bush league group think - has taken hold of the neo-con faithful. It is
a peculiar malady that prevents its victims from getting in touch with
their common sense. That explains why they can't come up with a straight
and consistent story on the nature of the Iraqi resistance.
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- These neo-con brats make it up as they go. They are the
same wizards who were certain of the exact location of Saddam's phantom
chemical arsenals. The 'slam dunk' and 'cake-walk' crowd can't help themselves.
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- Their ideological blinders and their passion for deception
prevent them from coming to terms with a few simple truths about the nature
of the Mess on Potamia that has cost America so much in blood, treasure
and international prestige. And they care nothing for the 100,000 Iraqi
casualties - because most Americans tend to ignore the gruesome Iraqi dimensions
of this war of choice.
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- The fact is that this insurgency "is spontaneous,
chaotic, opportunistic, unorganized, with multiple independent cells that
have different motives.
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- It might go dormant for a few days and then re-emerge
with different tactics in unexpected locations. It is well armed, without
a need to depend on new supplies from outside sources." I put that
in quotes because I wrote that assessment over a year ago.
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- The insurgency in Iraq is just a very natural and predictable
uprising by an occupied people against foreign invaders. For Iraqis, the
Anglo-American soldiers roaming their country are considered alien intruders.
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- The so called 'coalition forces' are not in Baghdad to
spread the blessings of liberty but to impose America's imperial will on
the natives and the region. If the Bush administration were interested
in promoting democracy in the region, they would start by impressing the
concept on their clients in the absolute monarchies in the Gulf - starting
with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
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- If the neo-cons had any interest in spreading freedom
and democratic values, they would not have spent four years promoting and
financing Sharon's vicious repression of the Palestinians.
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- According to a recent poll, 44% of Americans support
curtailing the civil rights of Arab-American and those who follow Islamic
traditions. That hardly sounds like a country with a passion for spreading
freedom to the Arabs 'over there'.
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- There are two primary factors that determine Bush administration
policy in the Middle East - Israel and oil. It is no state secret that
the neo-con architects of the Iraq war are Sharonistas with long standing
ties to the Israeli right wing. Evangelical Armageddon worshipers also
sit at the design table.
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- These two constituencies have zero interest in the welfare
of the people of the region. Together, they represent the forces that articulate
the 'irrational' motives that compel George Bush to unleash his demonic
visions on the hapless people of the Middle East.
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- Bush and Cheney have intimate relationships with avowed
anti-Arab racists like Natan Sharansky and Bernard Lewis. Cheney and his
wife actually spent months getting private lessons from Lewis - a professional
Palestinian basher. And George Bush recently met with Sharansky to discuss
their common vision for the Middle East.
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- Other neo-cons like Wolfowitz, Feith, Libby and Abrams
dominate the policy making process at the Pentagon and the White House.
All are radical and passionate Israeli partisans who act as front men for
Ariel Sharon. They are motivated by a desire to build a Greater Israel
- not a Greater Middle East. The neo-con agenda has nothing to do with
American national interests or national security.
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- The only rational reason politicians of both parties
acquiesce to the demands of Tel Aviv is to appease two very powerful religious
and ethnic constituencies capable of delivering vital votes in places like
Ohio.
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- But there are also some very rational motives behind
America's military adventures in the Gulf. Oil is not just another precious
commodity.
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- The black gold from the Gulf plays a central role in
propping up the demand for American dollars. For years, until 1971, the
almighty buck was backed by gold. The new standard is black gold.
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- The Gulf Arab princes have a long-standing Faustian bargain
with the American imperial project. They price their oil in dollars. They
sell their oil in dollars. They then expatriate their dollars to American
capital markets. Both the price and volumes of production are coordinated
with the United States. As a result, every country that imports oil needs
to maintain dollar reserves - which then allows America to export massive
amounts of currency. This arrangement helps to defer the day of reckoning
with massive trade deficits. Getting a compliant Iraq to join ranks with
the Saudis and Kuwaitis would have generated more support for maintaining
the primacy of the dollar as an international means of exchange.
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- In the post cold war world, the only real 'strategic'
value of oil is that it provides the United States with the unique privilege
of exporting massive amounts of currency in exchange for very real goods
and services.
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- As things now stand, the neo-con imperial project in
Iraq is in tatters. The rational elements in the administration are looking
for a face saving exit strategy aimed at cutting further losses. By now,
they know that the elections will result in a pro-Iranian Shiite dominated
government. Any delay in holding elections poses a real threat of a massive
Shiite insurgency.
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- To generate an aura of legitimacy, the first demand by
any elected Iraqi government will be a timetable for the withdrawal of
all foreign forces.
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- Behind the scenes, Iran will be asked to guarantee that
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will remain American dominated oil plantations.
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- The new Iraqi regime might yet be convinced to sign on
to the petro-dollar protocols.
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- In any event, the realists figure they can make a rational
deal with Iran and its allies in Baghdad - the Shiite dominated Iraqi Unified
Alliance.
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- The alternative is to leave Iraq as a failed state dominated
by warlords of every ethnic stripe - duplicating the results of the Soviet
misadventure in Afghanistan and creating a new base for the next Bin Laden.
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- Still, the irrational Likudniks in the administration
continue agitating for a 'win' in Iraq.
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- Neo-cons are always ready for one more cakewalk to appease
Sharon's real estate fantasies. They are still beating the drums for a
march on Tehran or Damascus - at a time when the US army is having trouble
securing the road to Baghdad airport.
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- Given the President's religious persuasions - and the
fact that he has certain obligations to the Judeo-Christian evangelical
identity movement that gave him four more years - it is still too early
to discount the neo-cons. George Bush is a gambler.
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- He spent a good part of his life losing other people's
money on dry holes in Texas. So far, he hasn't fired a single neo-con -
while Powell and the realists in the CIA have been ushered to the rear
door.
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- In Powell's place, Bush has appointed Condoleezza Rice
because she shares his messianic 'values' and has proven herself to be
a very useful walking mat for Dick Cheney's neo-con Praetorian guards.
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- If the neo-cons can waltz the president through another
round of Bush League 'group think' - the Iraq fiasco will only get worst.
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- Ahmed Amr is the editor of NileMedia.com. This article
can be published at will.
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