- Hello, Jeff - Here we go again, another "variant"
season. But, guess what, the flu vaccine that everyone is standing in
line, risking illness to get, does not protect against this years Wellington-LIKE
strain. Of course, that is if one believes flu vaccine really protects
against flu. My opinion is that it simply tricks and weakens the immune
system enabling other flu strains not in vaccine to do their dirtiest work.
-
- Exerpt: "The flu season has been late this year
[2004], and it seems some people who have been vaccinated have been hit
by this changing strain," said New Zealand Health Ministry flu chief
Dr. Lance Jennings."
-
- I am wonder when the deadly "spanish flu" variant
will appear? Given the risky research, this could occur any day now.
-
- BTW, it does seem a bit odd that news of this variant
strain is breaking so late. The Southern Hemisphere is now well into the
Spring season. Winter is long gone. One would think that this strain,
given the numbers below, i.e. 43%, would have been identified and made
public sooner.
-
- Exerpt: "Tests suggest that 43 percent of recent
New Zealand flu cases spring from the new strain, or variants of it. A/Wellington
has even turned up about as far from the South Pacific as is geographically
possible: in Norway."
-
- In any event, the flu vaccine shortage might be considered
to be a " plus" re our health. If people only use common sense
and 1. stay home when ill, 2. wash hands often, 3. eat right and keep the
immune system functioning and 4. stay out of crowds and avoid flu vaccine
as well as the long lines.
-
- BTW...not every sniffle or cough is the flu.
-
- Patricia Doyle
-
- A Pro Med Post
-
- Northern Hemisphere Risk Of A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-Like
Virus
-
- By Sabin Russell San Francisco Chronicle Sun 24 Oct 2004
[edited]
-
- As Americans scramble for scarce doses of flu vaccine
in hopes of warding off the respiratory bug this winter [2004-2005], the
wily influenza virus may have other plans. Through a natural process known
as antigenic drift, a new strain of influenza that can diminish the effectiveness
of today's vaccine is already emerging on the far side of the world. The
emergent strain raising questions now is known as A/Wellington, named after
the New Zealand city where it was 1st detected. "The flu season has
been late this year [2004], and it seems some people who have been vaccinated
have been hit by this changing strain," said New Zealand Health Ministry
flu chief Dr. Lance Jennings.
-
- Like weather forecasters watching tropical storms, epidemiologists
for the World Health Organization track the ever-evolving strains of influenza.
The predominant flu virus around the globe right now is one called A/Fujian,
and the vaccine Americans are seeking today is a perfect match for it.
But, A/Wellington is gaining ground. Tests suggest that 43 percent of recent
New Zealand flu cases spring from the new strain, or variants of it. A/Wellington
has even turned up about as far from the South Pacific as is geographically
possible: in Norway.
-
- The late season surge of A/Wellington was so worrying
that the WHO, on 8 Oct 2004, recommended that next year's [2005] flu vaccine
for the Southern Hemisphere, which is shipped in March, be reformulated
to protect against it. Dr. Nancy Cox, director of the Influenza Branch
at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said there is no way
of knowing whether the A/Wellington strain will establish a beachhead in
the United States this winter. "Influenza viruses are inherently unpredictable,"
she said in a telephone interview.
-
- One reason for concern is that laboratory animal tests
suggest that the current vaccine -- which targets A/Fujian -- is about
2/3rds less effective in stirring antibodies against A/Wellington than
it is against the targeted strain. That does not mean, Cox emphasized,
that the current flu shot would be 2/3rds less effective in actual use,
should the A/Wellington strain turn up in the United States. People who
regularly receive flu shots, she said, may have higher levels of antibody
protection against influenza than the laboratory animals. "We would
not anticipate that the Wellington strain will cause an enormous problem,"
she said.
-
- Doris Bucher, a flu vaccine expert at New York Medical
College in Valhalla, N.Y., said the animal tests on A/Wellington are actually
encouraging, because they show that antibodies stirred up by today's vaccine
will inhibit the new strain. "If Wellington rushed in and took over,
people would have good protection with the current vaccine," she said.
Bucher's lab specializes in developing strains of influenza that grow well
in eggs and hence serve as the basis for each year's flu vaccine made from
eggs. The current flu vaccine is made from a strain developed by her laboratory,
and she is working right now on an A/Wellington-like strain for manufacturers
who will make next year's [2005] vaccines.
-
- When flu vaccines are well-matched to the prevailing
flu strains, the shots can prevent flu in 70 to 90 percent of vaccinated
adults, according to the CDC. Well-matched shots may prevent flu in only
30 to 40 percent of nursing home residents, but they can reduce the death
rate from influenza and pneumonia in that population by 80 percent. American
manufacturers need a 9-month lead to produce flu vaccine. That requires
flu forecasters to predict in February what the prevailing flu strain will
be November.
-
- In February 2003, the Food and Drug Administration's
Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee selected a
strain called A/Panama as the target. Another strain, known as A/Fujian,
was starting to emerge on the World Health Organization's flu radar, but
planners feared there was not enough time to develop a vaccine for it.
Influenza struck the United States early and hard last year [2003]. The
1st cases turned up in early October 2003 in Texas, and soon anxious Americans
were clamoring for vaccine, a foreshadowing of this year's [2004] flu shot
frenzy.
-
- A near-record 83 million eventually had a flu shot last
fall [2003]. But, the predominant flu strain was not A/Panama but A/Fujian,
and the vaccine was only partially effective. A Colorado study for the
CDC concluded last year's flu shots were 52 percent effective in protecting
healthy adults against flu and 38 percent effective in preventing flu among
those with health conditions putting them at higher risk.
-
- Bucher said it is reassuring that tests are showing there
is less of a mismatch between the current flu vaccine and A/Wellington
than there was last year [2003] between A/Panama and A/Fujian. "It's
nothing like the situation we had last year,'' she said. The issue, of
course, will be academic if the A/Fujian strain predominates again this
year, as it did in the Southern Hemisphere during most of the winter season
that has now ended there. Those 61 million Americans who find the vaccine
will be protected.
-
- There is also some evidence that the A/Fujian strain,
having swept across the globe last year [2003], may have lost its punch.
Despite the late emergence of the new flu strain, influenza was unusually
mild throughout the Southern Hemisphere from May through October 2004.
One reason may be that the human population, vaccinated or not, developed
its own natural resistance to A/Fujian when it came through last winter
[2003]. "There are a number of factors that determine whether you
will have a good, medium, or bad flu year, and clearly a major factor is
whether the predominant strain happens to be the same as the one the previous
year,'' said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases. So far, there have been only isolated cases of
flu detected in the United States at the start of this year's flu season,
and all have turned out to be A/Fujian. "Things are looking pretty
good, in that regard,'' Fauci said. "But, that doesn't mean we won't
get into trouble in November or December [2004]."
-
- http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/24/FLU.TMP
-
- [The WHO Recommendations for Influenza Vaccine Composition
for the Northern hemisphere for 2004-2005 (the current vaccine) are the
following:
-
- (1) an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus (2) an
A/Fujian/411/2002(H3N2)-like virus a (3) a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus
b
-
- a: The currently used vaccine virus is A/Wyoming/3/2003.
A /Kumamoto/102/2002 is also available as a vaccine virus.
-
- b: Candidate vaccine viruses include B/Shanghai/361/2002
and B/Jilin/20/2003 which is a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus.
-
- For more detailed information, please see: Recommended
composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2004-2005 influenza
season, Weekly Epidemiological Record, 27 Feb 2004.
-
- http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/vaccinerecommendations1/en/index1.html
-
- The WHO Recommendations for Influenza Vaccine Composition
for the southern hemisphere for 2005 (southern hemisphere winter) are the
following:
-
- (1) an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus; (2) an
A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-like virus; (3) a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus
a
-
- a: Currently used vaccine viruses include B/Shanghai/361/2002,
B/Jilin/20/2003 and B/Jiangsu/10/2003
-
- For more detailed information, please see: Recommended
composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2005 influenza season,
Weekly Epidemiological Record, 8 Oct 2004. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/vaccinerecommendations1/en/index.html
-
- - Mod.CP]
-
- Patricia A. Doyle, PhD Please visit my "Emerging
Diseases" message board at: http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases
Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health
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