- LAS VEGAS -- The drought
gripping the West could be the biggest in 500 years, with effects in the
Colorado River basin considerably worse than during the Dust Bowl years,
scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey said Thursday.
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- "That we can now say with confidence," said
Robert Webb, lead author of the new fact sheet. "Now I'm completely
convinced."
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- The Colorado River has been in a drought for the entire
decade, cutting an important source of water for millions of people across
the West, including Southern California.
-
- Environmental groups said the report reinforces the need
to figure out a better way to manage the Colorado River before reservoirs
run dry.
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- "The water managers, they just continue to pray
for rain," said Owen Lammers, director of Living Rivers and Colorado
Riverkeeper. "They just say, well, we hope that things change and
we see rain."
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- The report said the drought has produced the lowest flow
in the Colorado River on record, with an adjusted annual average flow of
only 5.4 million acre-feet at Lees Ferry, Ariz., during the period 2001-2003.
By comparison, during the Dust Bowl years, between 1930 and 1937, the annual
flow averaged about 10.2 million acre-feet, the report said.
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- Scientists use tree-ring reconstructions of Colorado
River flows to estimate what conditions were like before record-keeping
began in 1895. Using that method, the lowest five-year average of water
flow was 8.84 million acre-feet in the years 1590-1594. From 1999 through
last year, water flow has been 7.11 million acre-feet.
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- "These comparisons suggest that the current drought
may be comparable to or more severe than the largest-known drought in 500
years," the report said.
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- The report said the river had its highest flow of the
20th century from 1905 to 1922, the years used to estimate how much water
Western states would receive under the Colorado River Compact.
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- The 1922 compact should now be reconsidered because of
the uncertain water flow, said Steve Smith, a regional director for the
Wilderness Society.
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- The report did not surprise water managers.
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- Adan Ortega, spokesman for the Metropolitan Water District
of Southern California, said the water district has been increasing water
storage, buying water from farmers and investing in alternatives to the
Colorado River.
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- "The big lesson is communities cannot afford to
put all their eggs in the proverbial basket. You need ... a diverse portfolio
of resources," Ortega said.
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- Herb Guenther, director of the Arizona Department of
Water Resources, said the agency continues to plan for a lingering drought.
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- "It's serious, but the sky is not falling. Of course,
we wish it would in the form of rain," he said.
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- Droughts seldom persist for longer than a decade, the
report noted. But that could mean the current drought is only half over.
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- "If you're a betting person, you will bet that we
will come out of this drought next year," Webb said. "It's a
very severe event and these things tend to end fast. There are other indications,
though, that suggest that this drought could persist for as long as 30
years.
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- "We don't really know."
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- - Angie Wagner is the AP's Western regional writer, based
in Las Vegas.
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- Copyright © 2004 The Associated Press. All rights
reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority
of The Associated Press.
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