- Anyone who believes that April has been the cruelest
month of this Iraq war - 111 Americans killed with the total dead now at
718, hundreds upon hundreds of Iraqi civilians killed - should gird themselves
for the reality that the worst, the very worst, the unimaginably awful,
is still yet to come.
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- It is bad enough that this second Bush war in Iraq
has yielded nothing of what was promised by George and his merry crew.
There are no weapons of mass destruction, there was no connection between
the deposed Hussein regime and al Qaeda, there was no connection between
Hussein and September 11, there will be no democracy for Iraq, and the
Iraqi people have most definitely not welcomed us with open arms.
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- Instead, Bush has mobilized anti-American sentiment
to such a staggering degree that Shi'ite and Sunni, enemies for generations
past counting, have united to fight us. The invasion and occupation has
spurred an al Qaeda recruitment drive that has swelled the ranks of that
organization. A lot of people are dead, American and British and Spanish
and Polish and Iraqi alike. Nine Americans and 28 Iraqis were killed this
weekend alone. The light at the end of this tunnel is an oncoming freight
train.
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- That's not the worst part, however. The worst part
is yet to come, in two cities called Falluja and Najaf. Americans paying
attention to the spiral of violence in recent weeks will recognize those
names, for they have been at the center of heavy combat since the month
of April began. Bush administration officials, rocked back on their heels
by the eruption of death there, were forced at one point to sue for a cease
fire with the 'insurgents' they had supposedly defeated last May, when
the mission was declared accomplished and the end of major combat operations
was declared over during a photo-op on an aircraft carrier several time
zones away from the violence.
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- The cease fire has failed, and American forces are
at this moment surrounding Falluja and Najaf with the intention of invading
these cities and routing the 'insurgents.' A showdown is coming, and nothing
good will be made of it.
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- U.S. military planners have spent many years now studying
about and training soldiers for the realities of urban combat. The city
of Falluja should be the first chapter in the urban combat strategy binder
titled "Worst Terrain Imaginable." The city has nearly 300,000
residents and is made up of a dizzying maze of narrow streets, wide boulevards
and back alleys. Most of the apartments have porches that will serve Iraqi
snipers and RPG-toting helicopter hunters well. Every neighborhood has
a mosque, a school, markets and clinics which, if struck by an errant American
bomb, will deliver horrible numbers of civilian casualties.
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- The politics of the looming Falluja incursion are another
thing again. Hajim al-Hassani, of the Iraqi Islamic Party, sits on the
American-compiled Iraqi Governing Council, but has little credibility among
the people in Falluja. He is seen as not having been able to stop American
forces from fighting in that city, and the Iraqi Islamic Party itself has
been accused of collaboration with America. The mayor of Falluja, Mahmoud
Ibrahim, is disliked by many of the city's residents. He informed officers
of the American forces a few days ago that he had no control over Jolan,
Hayal Askeri and Shuhada, three sections of the city which make up half
its area. In other words, both representatives for this town are basically
useless in any effort to call a halt to the attack.
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- The religious aspect is easily the most explosive element
in this matter. Falluja is a Sunni town. Through the almost mystical bungling
of the Bush administration, it has become tied to the holy city of Najaf,
a Shi'ite stronghold. This city, like Falluja, has been surrounded by American
forces and faces imminent attack. If an attack against Najaf is indeed
undertaken, the consequences for Iraq, and indeed for the entire Middle
East, will be unimaginable.
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- Najaf is the site of the tomb of Ali, the most important
Shi'ite saint. It is a holy city, like Mecca and Medina, and is the symbolic
capital for Shi'ites all around the world. If American forces attack Najaf,
every Shi'ite on the planet will have a dog in the fight. Iran, a Shi'ite-controlled
nation, may well become involved. Shi'ite religious leaders will issue
fatwas demanding massive numbers of suicide attacks against Americans.
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- Do the math.
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- American forces attack Falluja, and become ensconced
in a brutal street-to-street fight within the confines of that maze-like
city. 300,000 civilians will be caught in the crossfire, and the resulting
carnage will enflame the Iraqi people to a degree not yet seen. American
forces will absorb brutal casualties. If the U.S. decides to avoid troop
casualties by bombing Falluja in a repeat of Shock and Awe, the loss of
civilian life will be beyond severe.
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- Simultaneously, American forces attack Najaf, a holy
city central to the spiritual lives of millions of Shi'ites around the
world. An explosion of rage will engulf the Middle East. Iran, which has
something resembling a real army, could very well drive across the border
to engage American forces that are already stretched. This war, already
a ridiculous mess, will become an unmitigated catastrophe.
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- Anyone who thinks Iraq is a bad situation now should
reserve judgment until the end of this week. George W. Bush and his crew
have clearly forgotten the First Law of Holes: When you find yourself deep
in a hole, stop digging. If this is what Bush meant when he talked about
"changing the world" in his recent prime-time press conference,
we are all in a great deal of trouble.
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- William Rivers Pitt is the senior editor and lead writer
for t r u t h o u t. He is a New York Times and international bestselling
author of two books - 'War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to
Know' and 'The Greatest Sedition is Silence.'
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- http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/042604A.shtml
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