- "Heading off Iran's attempt to attain nuclear capability
is one of the Mossad's main missions, and the foreign media is one of the
most important instruments utilized in this effort."
-
- In its October 11-12 weekend editions, the Los Angeles
Times - with much fanfare - carried a 16-month old story: that Israel had
modified three diesel submarines acquired from Germany and US-supplied
Harpoon-type cruise missiles to give it a sea-based nuclear attack force.
The story was duly picked up by the German magazine Der Spiegel, which
amplified it with its own deep-throat intelligence information that two
months ago the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad had been tasked
to work out plans to "simultaneously and completely" destroy
Iranian nuclear installations in a grander-scale repeat of the 1981 destruction
of the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor.
-
- To round things out, on October 14, the LA Times carried
an editorial saying that the Israeli nuclear-capable subs program constitutes
"a dangerous step", "is a hostile move aimed at intimidating
Israel's neighbors," but "won't deter countries such as Iran
from developing their own weapons; instead it will only encourage them
to move ahead."
-
- So, what's going on here? Another black eye for Israel,
found out again pursuing aggressive arms escalation? Reckless endangerment
of the Middle East peace process (what peace process, exactly)? Not hardly.
But I'll get to that. First, some relevant publishing history and facts
on the Israeli nuclear-armed subs.
-
- On June 15, 2002, the Washington Post published a page
1 article by Walter Pincus titled "Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms
Capability." It read in part: "Israel has acquired three diesel
submarines that it is arming with newly designed cruise missiles capable
of carrying nuclear warheads, according to former Pentagon and State Department
officials, potentially giving Israel a triad of land, sea and air-based
nuclear weapons for the first time. The US Navy monitored Israeli testing
of a new cruise missile from a submarine two years ago off Sri Lanka in
the Indian Ocean, according to former Pentagon officials. A book published
this week by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reported that
Israel was attempting to arm its diesel submarines with nuclear cruise
missiles. 'Probably the most important nuclear-related development in Israel
is the formation of its sea-based nuclear arm', wrote Joseph Cirincione,
director of the Carnegie Endowment's nonproliferation project and a former
staff member of the House Armed Services Committee who served as chief
author of the book."
-
- What's new then in the LA Times and Der Spiegel reports?
Pretty much exactly nothing - except for the intriguing verbatim (!) Spiegel
quote from an Ariel Sharon cabinet order to the Mossad. Congratulations,
colleagues! That's quite an astonishing feat in investigative journalism.
-
- Many of Israel's land-based deterrent capabilities are
within reach of short-range missiles that could be fired from Lebanon and
Syria. All are within reach of medium-range missiles from Iran. Most of
Israel's military installations are under threat from potential terrorist
sabotage. Hence, that Israel should have sought and - when the opportunity
arose - acquired a more secure sea-based deterrent force (Dolphin-class
subs and nuclear-capable cruise missiles) is hardly surprising. Details
on this force, its purpose and capabilities, are readily available on dozens
of websites, eg, the Israeli site http://www.dolphin.org.il/dolphins/ or
the site of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
-
- The Israeli site on the Dolphin class (based on the most
advanced German Type 212 boat) states among other things, "While the
subs are likely more important as a nuclear deterrent to land-based attacks,
the Dolphin submarines offer Israel superior naval capabilities to its
neighbors as well." The FAS states, "It is generally agreed that
these [three Dolphin class] submarines are outfitted with six 533-millimeter
torpedo tubes suitable for the 21-inch torpedoes that are normally used
on most submarines ... Some reports suggest that the submarines have a
total of 10 torpedo tubes - six 533-millimeter and four 650-millimeter
... The four larger 25.5 inch diameter torpedo tubes could be used to launch
a long-range nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM).
According to some reports the submarines may be capable of carrying nuclear-armed
Popeye turbo cruise missiles, with a goal of deterring an enemy from trying
to take out its [Israel's] nuclear weapons with a surprise attack. Under
a system of rotation, two of the vessels would remain at sea: one in the
Red Sea and Persian Gulf, the other in the Mediterranean. A third would
remain on standby."
-
- Whether Israeli 200 kilogram nuclear warheads containing
6 kilograms of plutonium are mounted on longer-range Israeli-developed
Popeyes (up to 1,500 kilometers) or shorter-range, advanced/modified US
Harpoon SLAM (stand-off land attack) missiles is not known.
-
- On January 15, 1991 the Gulf War broke out and the next
day Israel experienced for the first time long distance ballistic missile
attacks on its civilian population. The main threat was the possibility
that Iraqi chemical warheads developed with support of German companies
would be used. As a result, the German government offered humanitarian
and military support. An Israeli delegation was sent to Germany and late
at night on January 30 then-chancellor Helmut Kohl approved an assistance
package that included two Dolphin-class submarines. The two, named "Dolphin"
and "Leviathan", with a construction price of $230 million each,
were donated by Germany and delivered in 1999. A third, "T'kuma"
(Revival), was jointly financed and delivered in 2000. Two additional Dolphins
have been ordered by Israel recently.
-
- The military logic of Israel's acquisition of a sea-based
deterrent is straightforward. As compelling was the logic of the 1981 pre-emptive
destruction of Iraq's French-built Osirak nuclear reactor before it could
produce nuclear-weapons material. Now Der Spiegel has "revealed"
the existence of an Israeli cabinet order for the drawing up of plans for
the destruction of Iranian nuclear installations. Reportedly, the order
was given two months ago. This is laughable. Israel has known for years
that Iran is working on nuclear programs with potential weapons applications.
Uranium enrichment to weapons-grade quality is in advanced stages. Contingency
plans for the destruction of relevant sites should international pressure
fail to dissuade Iran from weapons-applications work will have been made
long ago and kept properly updated.
-
- So, why all the fuss at this point? I suspect Aluf Benn
of Israel's Haaretz newspaper has the right take on that. A week ago, he
wrote, "Heading off Iran's attempt to attain nuclear capability is
one of the Mossad's main missions, and the foreign media is one of the
most important instruments utilized in this effort. Mossad agents supply
foreign journalists with information about Iran's nuclear efforts; such
foreign reports, the Mossad expects, support the international campaign
to thwart Iran's nuclear weapons program. Sometimes, the foreign media
are used to deliver deterrence-oriented messages about Israel's capabilities
and intentions."
-
- So much for the investigative prowess of our LA Times
and Der Spiegel colleagues.
-
- Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved.
-
- http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EJ21Ak02.html
|
