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- TOKYO (AP) -- A Japanese
researcher is causing a stir in Tokyo with a prediction based on his study
of radio waves that a major destructive earthquake is highly likely to
hit the city this week.
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- Yoshio Kushida, a well-known self-taught astronomer who
runs his own observatory just outside Tokyo, published on its Internet
site his prediction that a quake with a magnitude of 7 or greater was likely
to strike the metropolitan area on Tuesday or Wednesday.
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- The prediction was soon picked up by a popular weekly
magazine and a major daily. It has since been spread by word of mouth,
prompting some of the more nervous residents of Japan's quake-prone capital
to stock up on bottled water, candles and other disaster preparations.
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- "It's quite frightening," said Ichiro Makita,
48, a company employee who said he had heard about the prediction from
a friend. "I'm trying to avoid old buildings and have stocked up on
emergency supplies like an emergency radio and lamp."
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- The earthquake research establishment has largely ignored
the warning.
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- Forecasting quakes is generally considered to be impossible
with current technology, and Kushida's method of using anomalies in the
VHF range of radio waves to predict the timing and intensity of tremors
has not gained many believers in the scientific community.
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- Yukio Misumi, a spokesman for the Central Meteorological
Agency, said he was familiar with Kushida's prediction but added that the
agency was not doing anything in particular in response to it.
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- "Our stance is that we are prepared for a magnitude-8
quake in Japan," he said. "But presently, there is no scientific
method or technology that would allow us to predict where or when a magnitude-7
might occur. We can't predict earthquakes."
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- "We have nothing to specifically to say about Kushida's
research," he added. "He's simply expressing his own scientific
opinion."
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- Kushida, however, is convinced he is on to something
and has a duty to inform the public of the threat.
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- Originally a self-taught astronomer, Kushida opened his
private Yatsugatake Observatory in 1985, using radio waves to track passing
meteors. He got his name on a pair of newly discovered comets before becoming
interested in seismology after the devastating earthquake that hit the
western city of Kobe in 1995.
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- His theory: as pressure builds in the Earth's crust before
an earthquake, tiny cracks and magma movements can affect charged particles
in the atmosphere, and the resulting electromagnetic changes can be picked
up by radio receivers.
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- Extrapolating from past examples including the Kobe quake,
which left more than 6,000 people dead, Kushida believes the waves indicate
a shallow and powerful temblor is very likely to hit the Kanto plain, where
Tokyo is located.
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- "It would be terrible not to warn people of a possible
disaster in case a quake actually occurs," he said. "If my prediction
turns out to be a false alarm, I may face a lot of complaints and harassment
and I may not be even able to continue my research. Even so, I thought
I should warn every one of the possible danger."
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- Such warnings hit a sore nerve in Tokyo, which was ravaged
by a quake and fire in 1923 that killed more than 120,000 people and which
experts agree is overdue for another "Big One." Still, some people
said they'd rather be scared than unaware.
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- "The Japanese have a short-term memory when it comes
to earthquakes," said Yoshio Aoyama, 64, a company employee. "I
think it's good to publish things like this periodically."
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- http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/09/15/japan.earthquake.ap/
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