Kenneth Quinones, a former North Korea analyst for the U.S. State Department during the administration of U.S. President Bill Clinton, said Friday it was possible for North Korea to test a nuclear weapon by the end of this year. During an interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun, Quinones--who was involved in negotiations that resulted in the 1994 Agreed Framework between Washington and Pyongyang--said this viewpoint is shared by officials of the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush.

Following is an excerpt of the interview:

The Yomiuri Shimbun: Could you tell us about the common viewpoint in Washington regarding the situation in North Korea?

Quinones: To the best of my knowledge, based on very well-informed Washington sources, North Korea's nuclear program is moving ahead very quickly. Basically, this means North Korea reprocessing is almost finished, or has finished. This means North Korea now has enough plutonium to make six to 10 nuclear weapons.

There is the problem of how do you know if it will work. If North Korea wants to use their nuclear weapon as negotiating leverage, they must test it. If the test works, they want us to know. Why? They want to frighten us. To make us negotiate with them.

There is the question of how can they deliver this. It is impossible for North Korea to have nuclear warheads. The technology is too sophisticated. They do not have that technology. However, it is possible to deliver a large nuclear weapon using a ship.

The only ballistic missile that works in North Korea is the Rodong--or Scud, possibly. The Rodong is designed (to hit) U.S. military bases in Japan. You are the target of the Rodongs.

North Korea cannot send nuclear weapons to the United States. The only country they can send it to besides South Korea is Japan. So you have three problems. You have abducted Japanese citizens, you have ballistic missiles and you have nuclear weapons.

This is a very difficult situation for Japan, not just Washington.

You talked about a time frame for a nuclear weapons test.

The more I talked to my friends, the more I realized that it is possible for North Korea to have a nuclear weapon by December. It is possible they'll have a test by December. There is nothing to stop North Korea from doing this.

Why do you say this?

It takes about six months to reprocess, and then about six months to make the bomb. There are two kinds of bombs North Korea could make. One is the HEU--highly enriched uranium bomb. I now understand that it takes a long time, maybe two or three years, to make enough HEU to make one nuclear weapon.

So it's not possible now for North Korea to make that kind of bomb.

On the other hand, you only need 2 or 3 kilograms of plutonium to make a nuclear weapon. They have that. It is possible that they have that technology. And it is widely known technology.

Do you believe this information is known by officials in the Bush administration?

Yes. I think the information has been studied very, very deeply for one year. And there has been very careful assessment.

Does this mean it is going to take more time for them to make a weapon small enough to mount on a ballistic missile?

I asked a specialist about that exact question: What is necessary to make a small nuclear warhead? And the answer I received was, it requires very sophisticated technology. It took the United States a very long time. We know that Pakistan does not have that capability, and because of cooperation between Pakistan and North Korea before, North Korea does not have that technology. China says it did not give it to them. Russia has not.

So it would be extremely difficult for North Korea to develop that technology by itself, and it would also require a long time. And then they would have to test. Before that, it would be simpler to just make an old-fashioned nuclear bomb. That's where North Korea is.

So if they're going to attack Japan, for instance, they're going to send a cargo ship with weapons.

It's the only way. You see, once we begin thinking that they have nuclear weapons, our thinking must change. Completely. And we begin to think about how to deal with a nuclear North Korea. How will they react, how will we react? So in some ways, (they) are in transition from conventional North Korean military power to an almost nuclear North Korean power.

Is KEDO (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization) dying? Is there room for it to survive?

The Agreed Framework is dead. My friends in KEDO are looking for new jobs. The Bush administration has provided administrative support until the end of this August. Once the U.S. stops supporting KEDO, KEDO's dead.

Why? Because when KEDO was established, the United States promised North Korea that the U.S. would be the key player in KEDO. Maybe South Korea will take over KEDO, and maybe the project will continue, but not as KEDO. Japan has been put into a difficult situation. Does Japan contribute to a nuclear program in North Korea, or does Japan stop? I think we have only a few months, two or three months, and then KEDO will become essentially history.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030629wo43.htm