- The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently
by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following
is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian
military intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
-
-
- April 2, 2003, 1335hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - Exceptionally
difficult and unstable situation has developed on the US-Iraqi front by
the morning of April 1. The coalition troops are persistently trying to
take control of the strategic "triangle" Karabela - Al-Khindiya
- Al-Iskanderiya. At the same time the coalition units are continuing their
advance toward Al-Kut and An-nu-Manyah, but so far the US forces were unable
to take any of these towns. To move forward the US units are forced to
leave behind large numbers of troops needed to blockade the towns remaining
under Iraqi control. The An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya garrisons are still involved
in active combat deep behind the coalition forward lines.
-
- The coalition command had to deploy two brigades from
the 101st Airborne Division to blockade and to storm An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya.
These two brigades will replace elements of the US 1st Marine Division
(the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit under the command of Col. John Waldhauser)
that has been fighting in this area for the past six days. These "heavy"
attack brigades are currently being deployed to the area of intense fighting
near Al-Hillah.
-
- Rough estimates show that the territory "captured"
by the coalition forces still contains at least 30,000 Iraqi regular troops
and militia engaged in active combat. Military experts are already warning
the US command about the danger of underestimating the enemy: doing so
may seriously complicate the situation of the attacking forces and foil
the coalition's very optimistic plans.
-
- On the other hand, the Iraqi command is being forced
to withdraw its troops under the protection of towns. Iraqis are also forced
to minimize all active combat operations outside the city limits as the
desert terrain maximizes the enemy's advantage in aviation and its technological
superiority in reconnaissance and targeting systems. This robs the Iraqis
of their mobility and forces them to resort to "fortress-like"
type of warfare, which, clearly, is significantly reducing their combat
effectiveness.
-
- Near Karabela the command of the 3rd Mechanized Infantry
Division has completely abandoned its plans to storm the town. After blocking
Karabela on three sides the 3rd Infantry Division directed its main thrust
toward the towns of Al-Musaib and Al-Khindiya. Heavy combat is continuing
in this area for the second day. The US is continuously escalating the
intensity of its attacks and is using nearly all artillery and tank units
available to the strike group's command. Nevertheless, the coalition forces
are still unable to penetrate the Iraqi defenses. The commander of the
3rd Infantry Division Major General Buford Blount is reporting fierce Iraqi
resistance. According to the General, elements of the 2nd Iraqi Republican
Guard "Medina" Division that are defending these positions maintain
high combat potential and are repelling all attempts to break through their
lines. During the past day and today's early morning the [coalition] field
commanders have reported the loss of up to 5 tanks, 7-10 APCs and IFVs
and no less than 9 killed. At least one helicopter was hit and made an
emergency landing. Two more helicopters reported taking serious damage
and their situation so far is unknown. Iraqi losses [near Karabela], based
on the US reports from the battlefield, include at least 300 killed and
up to 30 destroyed tanks and APCs. In the morning the coalition forces
have ceased the attack and now the Iraqi positions are being engaged by
aviation. The next [coalition] attack is anticipated during the night.
-
- Heavy fighting is continuing in the town of Al-Hillah.
Despite strong aviation and artillery support the US Marine units are still
unable to strengthen their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates
and to push the Iraqi forces out of the town. During the past 24 hours
the US Marines in Al-Hillah lost up to 5 armored vehicles; at least 10
soldiers were killed or wounded. According to the reports by the US commanders,
the Iraqi losses during this time amount to at least 100 killed; 10 reinforced
strongholds inside the town have been destroyed; there are reports of 80
Iraqis captured during a cleanup operation in the occupied part of the
town.
-
- A crisis situation has developed in the area of Al-Divania.
Having encountered no initial Iraqi opposition elements of the US Marine
2nd Expeditionary Unit begun advancing toward the town but were met with
heavy artillery and mortar fire and were forced to assume defensive positions
resorting to close combat. The exchange of fire continued for nearly seven
hours resulting in up to 12 destroyed US tanks and APCs and up to 20 killed
or wounded Marines. Currently the Iraqi positions are being attacked by
artillery and aviation.
-
- Yesterday's attempts by the US troops to storm the part
of An-Nasiriya on the left bank [of the Euphrates] yielded no results.
After moving behind the Iraqi positions, while simultaneously attacking
them from the front, the US troops still were unable to break the Iraqi
defenses and by morning were forced to return to the their starting positions.
The coalition losses in this engagement, according to reports by [the US]
field commanders, were 2 killed and up to 12 wounded; a [US] helicopter
took a hit and made an emergency landing in the northern part of An-Nasiriya.
-
- Also no results came from the coalition attempts to capture
An-Najaf. All US attacks were repelled. There have been reports of 3 destroyed
APCs and at least 5 killed or wounded coalition troops.
-
- Near Basra the British forces are still unable to tighten
their blockade of the city. During the night the Iraqis attacked British
units near the village of Shujuh and threw the British back 1.5-2 kilometers.
According to the Iraqi reports, at least 5 British soldiers were killed
in this attack. The British, on the other hand, have reported 2 missing
and 4 wounded soldiers. Iraqis have reported that a destroyed British tank
and two APCs were left behind on the battlefield.
-
- Tactical attack units from the US 82nd Airborne Division
and the 22nd SAS Regiment, earlier deployed to northern Iraq near the town
of Al-Buadj, were destroyed and dispersed as the result of a daylong battle
with the Iraqi troops. The exact number of [coalition] losses is still
being verified. Intercepted radio communications show that the coalition
troops are retreating in small groups and have no exact information about
their own losses. Currently the remaining units are trying to reach the
Kurdish-controlled territory. It is believed that up to 30 [coalition]
soldiers were killed or captured by the Iraqis.
-
- Military analysts believe that today and tomorrow will
decide the outcome of the attack on Baghdad that begun two days ago. If
the coalition forces fail to break the Iraqi defenses, then by the weekend
the US will be forced to curtail all attacks and to resort to positional
warfare while regrouping forces and integrating them with the fresh divisions
arriving from the US and Europe. Such a tactical pause in the war, although
not a complete halt in combat operations (the coalition command will continue
trying to use localized attacks to improve its positions), may last seven
to fourteen days and will lead to a full re-evaluation of all coalition
battle plans.
-
- (source: iraqwar.ru, 04-02-03, translated by Venik)
|
