- Beijing has said the war in Iraq would lead to a humanitarian
catastrophe.
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- HONG KONG, China (CNN) --
The Iraqi war has convinced the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership
that some form of confrontation with the U.S. could come earlier than expected.
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- Beijing has also begun to fine-tune its domestic and
security policies to counter the perceived threat of U.S. "neo- imperialism."
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- As more emphasis is being put on boosting national strength
and cohesiveness, a big blow could be dealt to both economic and political
reform.
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- That the new leadership has concluded China is coming
up against formidable challenges in the short to medium term is evident
from recent statements by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.
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- Hu indicated earlier this year Beijing must pay more
attention to global developments so that "China make good preparations
before the rainstorm ... and be in a position to seize the initiative."
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- Wen also pointed out in the first meeting of the State
Council, or cabinet, last Saturday the leadership "must keep a cool
head."
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- "We must boost our consciousness about disasters
and downturns - - and think about dangers in the midst of [apparent] safety,"
he said.
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- Alarm bells about a deteriorating international situation
have been sounded by the CCP's secretive Leading Group on National Security
(LGNS), which coordinates policies in areas including diplomacy, defense
and energy.
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- The LGNS, which is headed by Hu, has since early this
month called a series of meetings to discuss ways to handle the Iraqi crisis.
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- In the near term, of course, the focus is on the impact
of rising oil prices -- and on the need to build up a strategic oil reserve
that can last at least 30 days.
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- However, economic concerns are not the top priority.
Given the likelihood oil prices will drop after the resolution of the conflict,
some government economists are saying the war's impact on this year's economic
performance will be insubstantial.
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- Officials even cite the safe haven theory to predict
foreign direct investment flowing into China will exceed the record $52
billion last year.
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- Of more concern to the LGNS is the perceived expansion
of American unilateralism if not neo-imperialism.
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- As People's Daily commentator Huang Peizhao pointed out
last Saturday, U.S. moves in the Middle East "have served the goal
of seeking world-wide domination."
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- State Council think-tank member Tong Gang saw the conflict
as the first salvo in Washington's bid to "build a new world order
under U.S. domination."
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- Chinese strategists think particularly if the U.S. can
score a relatively quick victory over Baghdad, it will soon turn to Asia
-- and begin efforts to "tame" China.
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- It is understood the LGNS believes the U.S. will take
on North Korea -- still deemed a "lips-and-teeth" ally of China's
-- as early as this summer.
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- These developments have prompted China to change its
long- standing geopolitical strategy, which still held true as late as
the 16th CCP Congress last November.
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- Until late last year, Beijing believed a confrontation
with the U.S. could be delayed -- and China could through hewing to the
late Deng Xiaoping's "keep a low profile" theory afford to concentrate
almost exclusively on economic development.
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- "Now, many cadres and think-tank members think Beijing
should adopt a more pro-active if not aggressive policy to thwart U.S.
aggression," said a Chinese source close to the diplomatic establishment.
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- He added hard-line elements in the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) had advocated providing weapons to North Korea to help Pyongyang
defend itself against a possible U.S. missile strike at its nuclear facilities.
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- Forestalling the challenge
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- Hu was elected president of China by the NPC this month.
Even less hawkish experts are advocating beefing up the national security
apparatus.
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- Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) economist Yang
Fan pointed out the recent global flare-ups had alerted China to the imperative
of improving national security and cohesiveness.
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- "Equal weight should be given to economic development
and national security," Yang said. "As we become more prosperous,
we must concentrate our forces [on safeguarding national safety]."
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- What is China doing to forestall the perceived U.S. challenge?
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- Firstly, the CCP leadership is fostering nationalistic
sentiments, a sure-fire way to promote much-needed cohesiveness.
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- While not encouraging anti-U.S. demonstrations, Beijing
has informed the people of what the media calls "increasingly treacherous
international developments."
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- This explains what analysts including Beijing scholars
considered the unexpectedly virulent official reaction to the start of
the Iraq war.
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- Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said the U.S.-led
military campaign had "trampled on the U.N. constitution and international
law" and that it would lead to regional and global instability.
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- Equally tough statements were issued by the National
People's Congress (NPC) and the advisory Chinese People's Political Consultative
Conference.
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- Major official media such as Xinhua and People's Daily
have run dozens of articles and analyses whose gist is that, in the words
of commentator Li Xuejiang, the invasion of Iraq had "damaged the
international order."
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- In an apparent departure from Beijing's cautious attitude
at the beginning of the Iraqi crisis, authorities last weekend allowed
a group of nationalist intellectuals to hold a conference condemning U.S.
"hegemonism."
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- The corollary of boosting national cohesiveness could
be the suppression of dissent, particularly politically incorrect views
expressed by "pro-West" intellectuals.
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- The warning and punishment that party authorities recently
meted out to several Beijing and provincial publications may augur a relatively
prolonged period of ideological control in the interest of promoting "unity
of thinking."
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- On the economic front, the authorities may play up the
imperative of concentrating resources to boost China's "economic security"
and "energy security."
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- "The Wen leadership is checking out why earlier
plans to build up a strategic oil reserve failed to materialize last year,
when prices were much lower," said a Beijing-based party source.
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- "It is possible that bucking the overall trend of
market reforms, Beijing may bring back more government fiats to sectors
deemed to have strategic and national-security implications."
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- It is instructive that in his 90-minute long interview
with the international media last week, Wen was quite reticent about boosting
economic reform such as the liberalization of state- owned enterprises.
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- In accordance with the theory of "the synthesis
of [the needs of] war and peace," civilian economic projects in areas
including infrastructure may be planned will the requirements of the defense
forces in mind.
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- On the military front, the Iraqi conflict will kick start
another season of accelerated modernization of weaponry.
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- Diplomatic analysts in Beijing said PLA officers and
strategists had been scrutinizing the latest hardware used by American
and British forces.
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- They pointed out the PLA's astonishment at the wizardry
of American firearms used in the 1991 Gulf War was a major factor behind
the Chinese army's aggressive modernization drive through the 1990s.
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- Academy of Military Sciences (AMS) expert Peng Guanqian
pointed out that the Iraqi war would provide the Pentagon with "a
testing ground for new military equipment and strategies."
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- The Liberation Army Daily last Friday quoted unnamed
officers from the Army and the People's Armed Police as saying the PLA
must "quicken the pace of military modernization."
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- Such developments could in turn hasten a possible showdown
between the two countries that harbor deep-seated mistrust of each other
even in relatively tranquil times.
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- http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/03/24/willy.column/index.html
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