- LONDON (Reuters) - The United
States, wooing allies for war, may not wait much beyond the next U.N. inspectors'
report on Saint Valentine's Day before unleashing an invasion to disarm
Iraq and topple President Saddam Hussein, analysts say.
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- "We'll hear a deafening drumbeat from the United
States in the run-up to February 14," said Iraq expert Toby Dodge
of Warwick University. "I would be surprised if the air war had not
started within seven days of that."
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- The tone from Washington and London is already grim,
despite appeals from many other capitals for the inspectors to be given
more time to prove whether Iraq is defying a Security Council resolution
which effectively told it to disarm or face war.
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- Britain joined the United States in declaring Iraq in
"material breach" of U.N. disarmament demands on Tuesday, a day
after chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix told the council that Saddam
had not come clean about stocks of lethal weapons.
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- British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said a further report
by U.N. weapons inspectors on February 14 was not an ultimatum, but warned
Iraq that its "unbelievable" refusal to comply with U.N. demands
had diminished chances of a peaceful outcome.
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- "The U.S.-British deployment will be in place towards
the end of February. They could start the air campaign a bit ahead of that,
but probably won't," said Sir Timothy Garden, a defence expert at
London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
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- "What happened yesterday (at the Security Council)
keep everything bubbling along till mid-February when the Americans, Brits,
Australians and anyone else involved will say, 'We are going to do this
anyway', and challenge the council to come up with a resolution to support
it," Garden said.
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- "The more war looks inevitable, the more Saddam
is likely to start obstructing the inspectors," he added, arguing
that this would create a self-reinforcing impetus for conflict.
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- Russian President Vladimir, who has urged more time for
the U.N. experts and opposed any solo U.S. action, said on Tuesday Moscow
could toughen its line if Iraq hampered the inspectors.
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- MILITARY TIMETABLE
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- Some oil experts pay more heed to U.S. troop deployments
and the uncompromising rhetoric of U.S. President George W. Bush than to
the diplomatic skirmishing at the United Nations.
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- "What's driving the timetable for war is not diplomacy
but military readiness," said Roger Diwan of consultancy PFC Energy
in Washington.
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- "If the U.S. needs more time to get the military
in place it will use that time to seek diplomatic backing but, whether
it gets that backing or not, we still expect war to start some time between
the middle of February and early March."
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- George Joffe, a Middle East specialist at Cambridge University,
said a ground war could not start before the end of February because U.S.
and British forces were not yet in place.
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- "They might start an air war, but not before February
14. That's when they will say 'enough is enough'," he said, noting
that the Muslim Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca would be over by then.
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- U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was quoted on Tuesday
as saying he recognised that a new U.N. resolution authorising military
action in Iraq would make it "easier for a lot of countries to join
in". However, he told the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad "it's
not a condition to start military action".
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- Sir John Moberly, a former British ambassador to Baghdad,
said attempts by the United States and Britain to secure a second resolution
might delay war, but not indefinitely.
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- "When they judge the moment favourable in terms
of international support and when they are militarily ready, they will
not wait. The machine is lumbering forward," he said.
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- Iraq, responding to Blix's report, promised more cooperation
with the inspectors, but few analysts expect a switch in its behaviour
dramatic enough to stay Washington's hand.
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- Saddam has made a series of defiant remarks in the last
few days, promising defeat for U.S. forces "at the gates of Baghdad",
urging his military men to be on guard against treason and ridiculing U.S.
propaganda leaflets dropped over Iraq.
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- Garden said that the Iraqi leadership was now likely
to be debating whether to "give more to the inspectors to cause more
dissent in the Security Council" or simply get on with preparing their
defences for a war that now looked inevitable.
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- "Everyone is making clear the inspectors will have
a bit more time, but not very much," a British official said. "Unless
Iraq changes its fundamental attitude now, time is running out."
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- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak shares that conclusion.
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- "The United States is determined to get rid of weapons
of mass destruction regardless of the price," al-Ittihad daily in
the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday quoted him as saying.
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- "The strike is coming unless Iraq abides by the
resolutions of the international legitimacy and unless it stops putting
obstacles in front of international arms inspections," he said.
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