- United Nations officials say as many as 500,000 Iraqis
could require medical treatment as a result of serious injuries suffered
in the early stages of a war on Iraq.
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- The total includes about 100,000 expected to be injured
as a direct result of combat and a further 400,000 wounded as an indirect
result of the devastation, according to estimates prepared by the World
Health Organisation (WHO).
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- The confidential UN assessment was drafted a month ago
but an edited version was posted on Tuesday on the website of a British
group opposed to sanctions on Iraq.
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- UN officials have confirmed the authenticity of the document,
which assumes that unlike the 1991 Gulf War, a new war in Iraq would develop
beyond an initial aerial bombardment into a large scale and protracted
ground offensive.
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- "The resultant devastation would undoubtedly be
great," the UN planners said.
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- The estimates were based on material from several different
UN organisations.
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- The UN staff has been quietly planning for months how
to cope with the humanitarian fallout from a conflict in Iraq.
- But the process has been kept largely under wraps for
fear it might be interpreted as a sign the world body had concluded the
weapons inspections now under way would fail to avert war.
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- The confidential assessment assumes that Iraqi oil production
would be shut down and the Iraqi electricity network, railway and road
transportation systems would be significantly damaged.
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- UN officials had previously disclosed that as many as
4.5 million to 9.5 million of Iraq's 26.5 million people could quickly
need outside food to survive once an attack began.
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- Homeless problem
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- War would also produce a huge refugee problem, driving
some 900,000 Iraqis into neighboring countries, with about 100,000 of those
requiring immediate assistance as soon as they arrived, the UN estimate
said.
- Another 2 million could be driven from their homes but
remain inside Iraq, where access by relief agencies would be a particular
problem due to the fighting, the planners say.
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- The UN arms inspections resumed last month, after a four-year
hiatus, under a UN Security Council resolution giving Baghdad a final chance
to eliminate any chemical, biological or nuclear weapons or face "serious
consequences".
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- UN chief weapons inspector Dr Hans Blix is due to provide
an interim report to the UN Security Council on his findings on Thursday.
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- His first in-depth report is set for January 27.
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- US President George W Bush, who favors a "regime
change" in Baghdad, has threatened to disarm Iraq through force if
it fails to act on its own, although Washington says no decision has been
made to go to war.
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- The assessment said Iraq can be expected to have four
months' supply of basic medical supplies on hand at the start of a conflict.
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- However, some key supplies would still likely be in short
supply or nonexistent, it said.
- Children aged under five, pregnant women and mothers
who are breast-feeding their infants "will be particularly vulnerable
because of the likely absence of a functioning primary health care system
in a post-conflict situation," it said.
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- "Furthermore, the outbreak of diseases in epidemic
if not pandemic proportions is very likely.
- "Diseases such as cholera and dysentery thrive in
the environment... when determining the requirement for pharmaceuticals
and medical supplies, these factors must be considered."
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- http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s759359.htm
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