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Germany, France Unite
Against Bush's Iraq War

By Andrew Hammond
1-22-3

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - European heavyweights France and Germany joined forces Wednesday to prevent any U.S.-led war on Iraq, which French President Jacques Chirac called "the worst solution."
 
But a Russian military source said Washington and its allies had already decided to launch a month-long military strike from mid-February with or without fresh backing from the U.N. Security Council, in which Russia and France hold veto powers.
 
"Germany and France have the same judgment on this crisis," Chirac told a news conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder marking their 40-year special relationship as the political and economic driving force of the European Union.
 
"We agree completely to harmonize our positions as closely as possible to find a peaceful solution to the Iraq crisis," Schroeder added.
 
Their comments, and the reported attack plan carried by a Moscow news agency quoting a senior military source, signaled a sharp increase in tensions surrounding the possibility of war against Iraq, accused by Washington of hiding banned weapons.
 
Iraq said its anti-aircraft batteries had shot down an unmanned U.S. spy plane Wednesday after destroying a craft in December in what General Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff described as a "lucky shot." There was no immediate U.S. comment on the latest spy plane claim.
 
U.S. President George Bush is massing more than 150,000 troops in the oil-rich Gulf and has already made clear he is ready to use them, with or without a new mandate from the Security Council, if he considers Iraq has not disarmed.
 
Bush says he has seen no proof of total disarmament but is hoping U.N. weapons inspectors will back his view when they report back to the Security Council Monday and insists the decision on whether to launch a strike has not yet been taken.
 
RUSSIAN REPORT
 
Interfax news agency's specialist military news wire AVN quoted an unnamed high-ranking source in the Russian general staff as saying, however, that U.S.-led operations would be launched once an attacking force had been assembled in the Gulf.
 
"According to the information we have, the operation is planned for the second half of February. The decision to launch it has been taken but not yet been made public," the source told the agency, which has generally authoritative contacts in the Russian military and political establishment.
 
The source did not indicate how the Russian military knew of such an operation, the main aim of which he said was not so much to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein but to secure U.S. control over Iraqi oilfields.
 
Russia has a major commercial interest in Iraqi oil and has made clear its eagerness to exploit Iraq's huge reserves once U.N. sanctions are lifted. A big oil producer itself, the struggling former superpower also fears a likely drop in crude prices once Iraq's reserves are opened up.
 
Oil prices eased Wednesday as dealers took profits from a two-month bull run sparked by the momentum for war, while gold, seen as a safe haven, hit its highest price in nearly six years.
 
"The war will be short, lasting about one month," the Russian source was quoted as saying.
 
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage flew to Moscow Wednesday to try to convince officials that diplomatic options were "just about exhausted."
 
U.N. arms inspectors say they need several more months to search for evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Tuesday "most countries" believed diplomacy had a long way to run.
 
France, which says it has yet to see a convincing case for war, has hinted strongly that it might veto a resolution authorizing force. Germany, which holds a non-veto Security Council seat, said it would not vote for one. Most of the 15 Council members have said the inspectors need more time.
 
CRUNCH WEEK AHEAD
 
In Iraq, scores of U.N. inspectors searched more sites suspected of producing banned arms while a U.N. official said Iraq would face mass starvation if a rationing system to cope with 13 years of sanctions collapses during any U.S. invasion.
 
Amid criticism that it has fallen short on planning for a post-war Iraq and its likely impact on regional oil prices, the Bush administration told Congress the United States would remain "as long as necessary" after any war to help rebuild the state.
 
The Babel newspaper owned by the eldest son of President Saddam Hussein, who Bush wants to remove from power, accused the U.S. president of making "stupid and disgusting" comments and repeating accusations on illegal arms because he had no proof.
 
"Bush has become the laughing stock of world leaders and peoples," it said in a front-page editorial referring to opposition to war by some U.S. allies.
 
Australia is due to send troops and a transport ship to the Gulf this week and Washington's closest ally Britain has ordered thousands of troops to the Gulf.
 
Bush hosts British Prime Minister Tony Blair on January 31 for what some see as a possible council of war. The inspectors say Iraq's record so far has been mixed, and Blair reiterated on Wednesday that that was not good enough.
 
"The inspections regime is not a detective agency. That duty to cooperate is not just about access to sites it is about being open and honest," he told parliament.


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