- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A
U.S. attack on Iraq could cost as much as $60 billion even if swift and
successful, with any follow-up and broader economic strain perhaps pushing
the final tab to $200 billion, a congressional report said on Monday.
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- The report, prepared by Democrats on the House of Representatives
Budget Committee, comes as Congress debates President George W. Bush's
recent request for authority to use force if necessary to disarm Iraq and
topple Saddam Hussein.
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- Cost has become increasingly important in that debate,
in light of the sputtering U.S. economic recovery and mounting budget woes.
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- Top Bush economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey last week
estimated a war with Iraq could cost $100 billion to $200 billion, but
White House budget director Mitch Daniels quickly stepped in to label that
figure as "likely very, very high."
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- "When all costs are considered, Mr. Lindsey's estimate
... seems to be in the ball park," South Carolina Rep. John Spratt,
the top Democrat on the Budget Committee, wrote in a letter sent to colleagues
on Monday.
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- The report focuses on the initial costs of achieving
a U.S. military victory in Iraq, drawing on the experiences of the Persian
Gulf War and assumptions it terms "fairly optimistic."
-
- These assume a conflict lasting 30 to 60 days, involving
125,000 to 250,000 U.S. troops facing light opposition and no chemical
or biological weapons.
-
- Under those conditions, a strike would cost $31 billion
to $60 billion, the report said, rising to $48 billion to $93 billion if
interest costs are included.
-
- It noted, however, that an initial military victory would
likely be only one stage of any action and the estimates did not include
the costs of an extended U.S. occupation or other nonmilitary expenditures.
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- "When all of the other costs that would be incurred
-- humanitarian assistance to refugees, reconstruction assistance, foreign
assistance to obtain cooperation for U.S. military action and interest
costs due to increased borrowing to finance these other costs -- are considered,
the total would easily exceed $100 billion," the report said.
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- "And if the war has an adverse impact on the U.S.
or global economy, or proves more difficult and lengthier than assumed,
$200 billion may unfortunately prove to be a reasonable estimate,"
it said.
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