-
- Israel's Debka.com currently has the following lead
article on its web site at
- www.debka.com. It should be noted that many
observers have long considered this
- web site to be an "asset" of the
Israeli Mossad, or some other agencyor faction of the Israeli
- Government. I have no way of knowing if any of the allegations
in this article are true or false.
-
- My own opinion is that IF the allegations made in this
article are substantially true, then the
- widely advertised "future" U.S. war against
Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein has already begun in
- stealth mode. I wonder if the secret strategy of
the U.S. and Israel is to try and provoke Saddam
- Hussein to launch a preemptive first strike against U.S. and/or
Israeli targets. One strategy for
- such a possible preemptive first strike by Iraq was described
in detail by Gordon Thomas in an
- article, entitled "THE WORD THAT NO ONE DARES UTTER
- BUT CRUCIAL TO THE
- COMING WAR WITH IRAQ," at www.gordonthomas.ie/154.html.
-
- Richard A. Landkamer
-
-
- Debka.com
- 8-11-2
-
- 10 August: America's offensive against Saddam Hussein's
regime in Iraq has begun as an exercise in gradualism rather than a D-Day
drama. DEBKAfile 's military sources report that tens of thousands of US,
British, French, Netherlands, Australian troops may take part in the campaign,
openly or covertly, but not in massive waves that fling themselves telegenically
on Baghdad.
-
- The fact of the matter is that American military concentrations
are already unobtrusively present in northern and southern Iraq. The US
campaign to oust Saddam is therefore unfolding already, albeit in salami-fashion,
slice by slice, under clouds of disinformation and diversionary ruses -
like the latest statements by President George W. Bush (No date set yet
for the offensive) and British premier Tony Blair (Plenty of time before
the war begins), or the grave reservations issuing from the Russian, French
and German leaders. The peasoup of deception is further thickened by utterances
in the last 48 hours from Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit, King Abdullah
of Jordan, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and the Saudi crown prince
Abdullah. They warn Washington that attacking Iraq would be a terrible
mistake, one which they want no part of.
-
- DEBKAfile's military sources attempt here to pierce some
of the thickets of confusion with a few facts on the ground:
-
- A. Special US forces entered the Kurdish regions
of north Iraq towards the end of March nearly four months ago, to set up
local Kurdish militias and train them for battle.
-
- B. At around the same time, Turkish special forces went
into northern Iraq in waves that continued through April, fetching up in
Turkmen regions around the big oil towns of Mosul and Kirkuk.
-
- C. Meanwhile, the Americans threw a ring of bases
- using existing facilities and adding new ones - around Iraq. They have
since been pouring into those bases US armored ground units, tanks, air,
navy and missile forces, as well as combat medical units and special contingents
for anti-nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. According to our sources,
the noose around Iraq extends from Georgia and Turkey in the north, Israel,
Egypt and Jordan to the west, Eritrea and Kenya in the southwest, and Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain to the south.
-
- Furthermore, a large US armada, including aircraft carriers,
has assembled at three points: the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and
the Persian Gulf.
-
- D. Since June, American and Turkish construction
engineers have been working in northern Iraq, building and expanding airfields
and air strips to make them fit for military use.
-
- (Details of this operation appear in an earlier report
on this page.)
-
- First US Military Steps
-
- In the past week, once those preparations were in place,
the United States carried out two military operations:
-
- 1. Tuesday August 6, at 0800 hours Middle East
time, US and British air bombers went into action and destroyed the Iraqi
air command and control center at al-Nukhaib in the desert between Iraq
and Saudi Arabia. The center contained advanced fiber optic networks recently
installed by Chinese companies. DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources
say the raid made military history. For the first time, the US air force
used new precision-guided bombs capable of locating and destroying fiber
optic systems. The existence of such weaponry was hitherto unknown.
-
- Following the destruction of the facility, about 260
miles (415 kilometers), southwest of Baghdad, waves of US warplanes swept
in from the Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia and from US aircraft
carriers in the Gulf and flew over the Iraqi capital.
- The Iraqi air force and anti-aircraft system held their
fire on orders from above. This deep air penetration told the Americans
that the early warning radar system protecting Baghdad and its environs
from intrusion by enemy aircraft and missiles was inactive.
-
- 2. Two days later, on Wednesday night, August 8,
Turkey executed its first major military assault inside Iraq. DEBKAfile's
military sources learn from Turkish and Kurdish informants that helicopters
under US, British and Turkish warplane escort flew Turkish commandos to
an operation for seizing the critical Bamerni airport in northern Iraq.
This airport, just outside the Kurdish region, lies 50 miles north of the
big Iraqi oil cities of the north, Kirkuk and Mosul. With the Turkish commandos
was a group of US special forces officers and men. Bamerni airport was
captured after a brief battle in which a unit of Iraqi armored defenders
was destroyed, opening the airport for giant American and Turkish transports
to deliver engineering units, heavy machinery and electronic support equipment,
which were put to work at once on enlarging the field and widening its
landing strips.
-
- The American unit, reinforced, went on to capture two
small Iraqi military airfields nearby.
-
- The Turkish expeditionary force in northern Iraq now
numbers some 5,000 men, in addition to Turkish air force contingents.
- DEBKAfile's military experts explain that with Bamerni
airport and the two additional airfields the Americans have acquired full
control of the skies over the two oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, as well
as over the Syrian-Iraqi railroad, which they can now cut off by aerial
bombardment. A prime strategic asset, this railroad is Saddam's back door
for taking delivery of his illegal overseas arms purchases, which are ferried
from Syrian ports to Baghdad by the Syrian-Iraqi railway. On the return
journey, the same railway carries illegal Iraqi oil exports, over and above
the quantities allowed under UN sanctions, out to market. The Iraqi war
effort and the Syrian treasury depend heavily on the revenues accruing
from these smuggled oil sales.
-
- The battle over this airfield was in fact the first important
face-to-face engagement between a US-led invasion force and Iraqi troops.
It was carried out seven hours before the Iraqi ruler delivered his televised
speech to the nation, on the 14th anniversary of the bloody eight-year
Iraq-Iran war. In that speech, Saddam threatened American troops going
to war against Iraq that they would return home in coffins.
-
- Next Steps
-
- Just before the Saddam address, US spy satellites and
planes detected unusual movements by elite Republic Guard units in the
capital. They appeared to be digging positions below ground on the banks
of the Tigris. Some military commentators were convinced the Iraqi ruler
had decided to bury himself and his key associates in fortified bunker-type
positions. He was said to be counting on American reluctance to engage
in urban warfare in Iraqi towns for fear of large-scale-casualties that
would force them to withdraw.
-
- DEBKAfile's military experts see little sign of this
tactic - aside from the initial report. In fact, the bulk of the Iraqi
army is concentrated in three regions outside Baghdad - the Kurdish regions
of the north, the H-3 and al Baghdadi air bases opposite the Jordanian
border in the center, and along the Saudi and Kuwaiti frontiers, in the
south.
-
- In the north, the Iraqi armored divisions, which are
massed opposite the Turkish border along the Little and Big Zeb Rivers,
show now sign of movement in response to US-Turkish activity.
-
- Iraqi concentrations in the center and south have been
augmented somewhat but not substantially.
- Iraq's military passivity in the face of US-led advances
and strikes is beginning to worry the American, Turkish and Israeli high
commands. They suspect that Saddam is playing the same fog-of-war game
as Washington, so as to put them to sleep and then catch them unawares.
-
- Such sudden action could take the form of an Iraqi missile
or bomber attack on Israel using warheads loaded with radioactive, chemical
or biological materials, a combined missile-terrorist strike to sabotage
Saudi oil fields, or a mass terrorist attack in the United States.
- The sharpest alert to a threat to Iraq's southern neighbors
came not from military intelligence but from international oil dealers,
who warned that Saddam Hussein if attacked may well decide to set fire
to Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields, sending oil prices skyrocketing above
US$ 40 per barrel.
-
- Israel's Concerns
-
- Israel faces three threats, all of them in the realm
of the unknown:
-
- a. An Iraqi missile attack, when the size of Saddam's
arsenal has not been reliably established.
- DEBKAfile 's military experts dispute the assessment
heard this week from retired Israeli military leaders that the Iraqis have
only a few missiles. The truth is that no one outside Iraq knows how many
Saddam has cached or what advanced missile technologies he has secretly
developed. According to one estimate, Iraq may have accumulated between
70 and 150 warheads, or maybe more.
-
- b. A WMD threat, when no one knows what Saddam has up
his sleeve - whether radiological bombs with a limited radius, or a more
highly developed type. The same questions apply to Saddam's biological
and chemical warfare capabilities.
-
- c. Notwithstanding the presence of US forces in Jordan
and the strategic-defense relationship developed between Jordan and Israel,
the possibility of the old Eastern Arab Front coming back to life against
Israel, though unlikely, cannot be entirely ruled out.
- The gloomiest scenario envisages Iraqi units surging
through Jordan to attack Israeli from the east concurrently with a Syrian-Hizballah
strike from the north - a combined assault that may sweep King Abdullah
into the fray against Israel.
-
- The Jordanian king is an unknown quantity, untried in
war situations. Therefore the odds on his executing an about-face as radical
as this cannot be estimated with certainty. Israeli war planners, however,
are not ignoring this possible peril, however improbable.
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