- Why is India building Intercontinental Nuclear Ballistic
Missiles (ICBMs)? Is India going to attack America and Europe one day with
its long-range Nuclear Weapons?
-
- "Another [Indian] commentator, well-known defense
analyst Brahma Chellaney, reiterated his call recently for India to develop
Intercontinental (Range) Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of deterring
the United States and the West in future crisis scenarios. Echoing commentator
Mattoo's analysis, Chellaney notes in an article titled "Value of
Power" in the 19 May 1999 edition of The Hindustan Times (Internet
version) that "nuclear deterrence still relies on destroying enemy
cities."
-
- "Chellaney cites U.S. and NATO activities in Kosovo/Serbia
as a possible model for a future threat to India, a topic he has previously
addressed (see India and Pakistan Resume Flight Tests). "But can nuclear
India prevent a Yugoslavia from happening to it?," he asks. His response:
"No, unless India builds intercontinental ballistic missiles."
-
- Says Chellany: "Immunity from high-tech [Western]
aggression can only come if a country has the capability to hit the homeland
of the attacking force.if India, a weaker willed nation than many, is to
gain true strategic autonomy, free itself from external pressure and be
a global player, it will have to develop ICBMs, the symbols of power and
punishment."
-
- India's ICBMs Can Destroy American and European Cities
-
- India's Surya (Sun). "While the status of the Surya
ICBM program is unclear, there are many reports that indicate that the
development of this system is underway, with development probably being
initiated in 1994. According to one Indian source, the Surya could be ready
to begin flight testing as early as 1997. At this point, there are still
several conflicting reports regarding the Surya's configuration. The most
plausible report claims that the Surya will probably be based on the components
of the polar space launch vehicle (PSLV). As for its armament, the Surya's
warhead is likely to be composed of essentially the same technology as
that used in the maneuvering warhead of the Agni. In short, the only thing
that seems to be agreed upon is that the Surya will be composed of components
perfected for the Agni IRBM and for India's space-launch vehicles and that
it will have a range between 8,000 and 12,000 kms.
-
- "As discussed earlier, a significant number of Indian
strategists believe that India needs a deterrent capability against the
United States. If the Surya achieves a range of 12,000 kms, India would
have the capability of positioning the missile at New Delhi and striking
U.S. targets that lie on, and north of, a range-arc running from about
Raleigh, North Carolina to Omaha, Nebraska to Eugene, Oregon. (See Figure
4-5). India's geography would also allow it to launch the missile 500-600
kms north of New Delhi and push the U.S. range-arc that much further towards
the south or allow it to compensate somewhat for a system that may not
be able to achieve a 12,000 km range.
-
- "If the Surya should prove to have a range of 12,000
kms, its unveiling will pose problems for India since initially the United
States can be expected to react harshly to its existence. Therefore, a
pacing item for India's unveiling of the Surya likely hinges on the status
of India's nuclear warhead development and the perfection of the Agni missile
system. Once it has confidence in its thermonuclear warhead and the Agni's
re-entry vehicle, the Surya could be unveiled and tested quickly if Indian
policymakers judge that it is needed and are prepared to accept the international
heat for such a development. At that point, India would not require very
many years before it could field a small ICBM force. Obviously, the development
of the Surya is tied to the Agni. As long as the United States can keep
Agni's test program in a state of suspension, the development of the Surya
will also be slowed.
-
- "India, a land rife with serious internal problems,
appears capable of surprising the world by emerging as nuclear capable
nation with ICBMs in the 2000-2010 time frame (depending on how much time
the program is delayed due to U.S. diplomatic pressure and MTCR impediments).
Even if the indigenous development effort is slowed, India has the technological
capability of emerging as a nuclear armed power with ICBMs in a window
of about 5 to 8 years from the time it makes a decision to do so. In addition,
as discussed in Chapter 2, there seems to be some possibility that India
might in the future be able to obtain the mobile Topol M ICBMs (SS-X-27s)
from Russian sources.
-
- "Although it is not believed that India intends
to use missile capabilities actually to strike the United States, it may
be tempted to wave it as a deterrent gesture in cases where it feels the
United States is interfering with its vital national interests. At the
same time, India is a poor country that needs economic ties with the United
States. Consequently, India would have to feel hard pressed before it engaged
in direct confrontational actions. Of perhaps greater concern is the fact
that India needs cash, but its options for exporting defense goods to help
offset its security costs are limited.
-
- "Missiles, software, nuclear technology, and related
products are among the most salable defense items that India will soon
produce. Although India is not likely to act in a totally irresponsible
manner in transferring these technologies, it is conceivable that its definition
of acceptable transfers may well differ from that held by the United States.
As a complicating factor, corruption in India is a significant problem,
which raises the possibility that some of this sensitive technology could
be transferred to other parties outside of official channels. Consequently,
India could well become a contributing source to the spread of proliferation-related
technologies. While the case should not be overstated, there is some risk
that the Indo-American friction that may result from this situation could
sour relations and push India into aligning its foreign policy with other
states that are actively seeking to frustrate U.S. interests in Asia."
-- www.FAS.org
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- ttp://www.paknews.com/articles.php?id=1&date1=2002-06-28
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