- LONDON (Reuters) - A massive
asteroid could hit Earth in just 17 years' time, destroying life as we
know it, a British space expert said Wednesday.
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- The asteroid -- the most threatening object ever detected
in space -- is two km (1.2 miles) wide and apparently on a direct collision
course with Earth.
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- "Objects of this size only hit the Earth every one
or two million years," said Dr. Benny Peiser, an asteroid expert at
Liverpool John Moore's University in northern England.
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- "In the worst case scenario, a disaster of this
size would be global in its extent, would create a meltdown of our economic
and social life, and would reduce us to dark age conditions," he told
Reuters.
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- But Peiser and other space experts say they are pretty
confident this nightmare scenario will not come about.
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- "This thing is the highest threat that has been
cataloged, but the scale in terms of the threat keeps changing," said
Peter Bond, spokesman for the Royal Astronomical Society.
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- "If it did hit the Earth it would cause a continental-size
explosion...but it is a fairly remote possibility."
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- The asteroid -- named 2002 NT7 -- was first detected
earlier this month by the United States Linear sky survey program.
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- Since then, Peiser said scientists at the U.S. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration's near-Earth objects team and at Pisa
University in Italy have carried out orbit calculations to work out the
probability and potential date of impact to define the risk it poses.
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- Their calculations show it could hit the earth on February
1, 2019.
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- "The impact probability is below one in a million,
but because the first impact date is so early -- only 17 years from now
-- and the object is very large, it's been rated on the impact risk Palermo
Scale as a positive," Peiser said. "It is the first object which
has ever hit a positive rating."
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- Scientists warn, however, that the risk rating has not
been reviewed by the International Astronomical Union, which is the main
international body responsible for announcing such risks.
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- Peiser said 2002 NT7 would continue to be monitored by
space experts across the world, and that over time, these observations
would probably erase the threat posed by it.
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- "In all likelihood, in a couple of months additional
observations will eliminate this object from the list of potential impacts,"
he said. "I am very confident that additional observations over time
will...show that it is actually not on a collision course with Earth."
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- But he warned that the world should take this as wake-up
call and set about preparing for the reality of an asteroid hit in the
future.
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- "Sooner or later -- and no one can really tell us
which it will be -- we will find an object that is on a collision course.
That is as certain as "Amen" in church. And eventually we will
have to deflect an object from its collision course," he said.
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- At the moment, he added, scientists fear it could take
at least 30 years for the world to be able to devise and set up a mission
to deal with such a threat -- a timescale which would be woefully inadequate
if the 2019 strike were to happen.
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