- Some weeks ago, something curious happened:
Israel discovered that Iran is the Great Satan.
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- It happened quite suddenly. There was
no prior sensational news, no new discovery. As if by the order of a drill-sergeant,
the whole Israeli phalanx changed direction. All the politicians, all the
generals, all the enlisted media, with the usual complement of professors-for-hire,
- all of them discovered overnight that Iran is the immediate, real and
terrible danger.
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- By wondrous coincidence, at exactly the
same moment a ship was captured that, allegedly, carried Iranian arms to
Arafat. And in Washington Shimon Peres, a man for all seasons and the servant
of all masters, accosted every passing diplomat and told him stories about
thousands of Iranian missiles that have been given to the Hizbullah. Yes,
yes, Hizbullah (included by President Bush in the list of "terrorist
organizations") is receiving horrible arms from Iran (included by
President Bush in the "Axis of Evil") in order to threaten Israel,
the darling of the Congress.
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- Does this sound mad? Not at all. There
is method in this madness.
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- On the face of it, the matter is easy
to explain. America is still in a state of fury after the Twin-Towers outrage.
It has won a amazing victory in Afghanistan, hardly sacrificing a single
American soldier. Now it stands, furious and drunk with victory, and does
not know who to attack next. Iraq? North Korea? Somalia? The Sudan?
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- President Bush cannot stop now, because
such an immense concentration of might cannot be laid off. The more so,
as Bin-Laden has not been killed. The economic situation has deteriorated,
a giant scandal (Enron) is rocki ng Washington. The American public should
not be left to ponder on this.
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- So here comes the Israeli leadership
and shouts from the roof-tops: Iran is the enemy! Iran must be attacked!
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- Who has made that decision? When? How?
And most importantly - Where? Clearly not in Jerusalem, but in Washington
DC. An important component of the US administration has given Israel a
sign: Start a massive political offensive in order to pressure the Congress,
the media and American public opinion.
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- Who are these people? And what is their
interest? A wider explanation is needed.
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- The most coveted resource on earth is
the giant oil-field in the Caspian Sea region, that competes in scale with
the riches of Saudi Arabia. In 2010 it is expected to yield 3.2 billion
barrels of crude oil per day, in addition to 4850 billion cubic feet of
natural gas per year.
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- The United States is determined (a) to
take possession of it, (b) to eliminate all potential competitors, (c)
to safeguard the area politically and militarily, and (d) to clear a way
from the oil-fields to the open sea.
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- This campaign is being led by a group
of oil people, to which the Bush family belongs. Together with the arms
industry, this group got both George Bush senior and George Bush junior
elected. The President is a simple person, his mental world is shallow
and his pronouncements are primitive, bordering on caricature, like a second-rate
Western. That is good for the masses. But his handlers are very sophisticated
people indeed. It's they who guide the administration.
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- The Twin Towers outrage made their job
much easier. Osama Bin Laden did not comprehend that his actions serve
American interests. If I were a believer in Conspiracy Theory, I would
think that Bin Laden is an American agent. Not being one, I can only wonder
at the coincidence.
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- Bush's "War on Terrorism" constitutes
a perfect pretext for the campaign planned by his handlers. Under the cover
of this war, America has taken total control over the three small Muslim
nations near the oil reserves: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The whole region is now completely under American political-military domination.
All potential competitors - including Russia and China - have been pushed
out.
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- For a long time, the Americans have been
arguing among themselves about the best route for piping this oil to the
open sea. Routes that may be under Russian influence have been eliminated.
The 19th century, deadly British-Russian competition, then called the "Great
Game", is still going on between America and Russia.
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- Until recently, the western route, leading
to the Black Sea and Turkey, seemed most feasible, but the Americans did
not like it very much, to say the least. Russia is much too near.
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- The best route leads south, to the Indian
Ocean. Iran was not even considered, since it is governed by Islamic fanatics.
So there remained the alternative route: from the Caspian Sea, through
Afghanistan and the western part of Pakistan (called Beluchistan), to the
Indian Ocean. To this end, the Americans conducted, ever so quietly, negotiations
with the Taliban regime. They bore no fruit. Then the "War on Terrorism"
was started, the US conquered all of Afghanistan and installed their agents
as the new government. The Pakistani dictator, too, was bent to the American
will.
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- If one looks at the map of the big American
bases created for the war, one is struck by the fact that they are completely
identical to the route of the projected oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean.
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- That would have been the end of the story,
but the appetite grows with the eating. The Americans drew two lessons
from the Afghani experience: (a) that every country can be subdued by sophisticated
bombs, without putting any soldiers in harm's way, and (b) that by military
might and money America can install client governments anywhere.
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- And so a new idea came up in Washington:
Why lay a long pipeline around Iran (through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
and Pakistan) if one can lay a much shorter pipeline through Iran itself?
One has only to topple the Ayatullah regime and install a new pro-American
government. In the past, that seemed impossible. Now, after the Afghani
episode, it looks eminently practicable. One has only to prepare American
public opinion and to acquire the support of the congress for an attack
on Iran.
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- For this, Israel's good services are
needed. It has an enormous influence in the Congress and the media. It
works like this: Israeli generals declare every day that Iran is producing
weapons of mass-destruction and threatens the Jewish State with a second
Holocaust. Sharon announces that the capture of the Iranian arms-ship proves
Arafat is a part of the Iranian conspiracy. Peres tells everybody that
Iranian missiles threaten the whole world. Every day some newspaper tells
its readers that Bin Laden is in Iran or with the Hizbullah in Lebanon.
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- President Bush knows how to reward those
who serve him well. Sharon got a free hand to oppress the Palestinians,
imprison Arafat, assassinate militants and enlarge the settlements. It's
a simple deal: You deliver the support of the Congress and the media, I
deliver the Palestinians on a platter.
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- This could not happen if America was
still in need of allies in Europe and the Arab world. But in Afghanistan,
the Americans learned that they don't need anybody anymore. They can spit
in the eyes of the pitiful Arab regimes, that are always begging for money,
and disregard Europe altogether. Who needs the negligible armies of Britain
and Germany, when America alone is mightier then all the armies of the
world combined?
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- The idea of American-Israeli cooperation
against Iran is not new for Sharon. On the contrary, in 1981, when he was
just appointed Minister of Defense, he offered the Pentagon a daring plan:
in the event of Khomeini's demise, the Israeli army would immediately occupy
Iran, in order to forestall the Soviet Union. The IDF would turn the country
over to the slow-moving Americans, once they arrived. For this purpose,
the Pentagon would stockpile in advance the most sophisticated arms in
Israel, under American control, to be used in this operation.
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- The Pentagon did not accept the idea
at that time. Now, the cooperation is being established against a different
background.
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- What conclusions should we draw from
all this?
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- First of all, that we shall be located
on the frontline of this coming war. Beyond the exchange of curses between
the "two Persian Chiefs-of-Staff" (as the joke goes in Israeli
command circles, alluding to the fact that Shaul Mofaz was born in Iran),
an Iranian reaction to an American assault may hurt us grievously. There
are missiles. There are chemical and biological weapons.
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- Second, that those of us who desire an
Israeli-Palestinian peace cannot rely on America. Now everything depends
on us alone, the Israelis and the Palestinians. Our blood is more precious
than Caspian Sea oil. At least to us.
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- Uri Avnery lives in Israel. He has written
extensively about the life and career of Ariel Sharon.
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