- In a world where power flows from the barrel of
oil, Russia is set to be the global capital of energy...
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- As the dust begins to settle in Afghanistan, it's increasingly
clear that the big winner in terms of post-September 11 energy politics
is Russia, which now rivals Saudi Arabia as the world's dominant energy
producer.
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- Since oil and politics tend to flow in the same direction,
the rise of Russia's oil industry will have major strategic impact. It
will transform global business too, as Russian oil companies such as Lukoil
and Yukos join the likes of Exxon-Mobil and BP among the ''super-majors''.
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- The Afghanistan war will give Russia control over the
oil flowing out of Central Asia, according to energy experts. That's the
practical price Russian President Vladimir Putin can exact for supporting
George W. Bush after September 11. The output from the two big Central
Asian producers, Azerbaijan and Kakazkhstan, could total roughly 3 million
barrels per day by 2010. Russian companies may also be the dominant players
in Iraq, regardless of who's in power there.
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- That would add another 6 million barrels per day of potential
production under Moscow's loose control. Then add Russia's own production,
which now totals more than 7 million barrels per day, and it's obvious
that Moscow is on its way to becoming the next Houston - the global capital
of energy.
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- Russia would have a degree of control over about 16 million
barrels per day, roughly double the current production of Saudi Arabia.
And those totals don't include natural gas, where Russia is already the
dominant producer, by far.
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- Russia's emerging dominance of the energy industry is
a theme of a recent study by the Petroleum Finance Co, a Washington consulting
firm. Their analysts note that when you combine Russia's proven oil and
gas reserves, it is already the world's leading energy nation, with about
15 per cent more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia. ''The US need for Russian
cooperation means Moscow will gain most in the new strategic environment,''
argues a Petroleum Finance analysis of ''winners'' and ''losers'' in the
post-September 11 world.
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- Russia's political hegemony in Central Asia will be strengthened,
according to the study, as will its control over regional pipelines and
other export routes. The big change will come as Russian oil companies
change from sluggish state-owned giants into dynamic modern companies.''The
Russians have realised you can make more money by real capitalism than
by stealing,'' notes J. Robinson West, chairman of Petroleum Finance. Already,
Lukoil is planning to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange -
which will force the company to meet tough US accounting standards.
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- ''The Russian companies are going to play a major role,''
agrees Walid Khadduri, the editor of Middle East Economic Survey, an authoritative
newsletter on the industry.
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- Another energy winner in the post-September 11 world
is Iran, according to both Petroleum Finance and Khadduri. Like the Russians,
the Iranians were important - if invisible - allies in America's war in
Afghanistan. And they're likely to be rewarded. ''Wasington has been forced
to recognise Iran's strategic interests in the Middle East and Central
Asia,'' explains the Petroleum Finance study, ''but Russia's ascendance
in Central Asia will limit Iran's political and economic gains.''
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- Iran's biggest problem in capitalising on its new status
is its political dual personality. It has a moderate president and a young
population so restless it's holding pro-American riots after soccer games.
But Iran's mullahs and secret police are clinging to power, and they may
hold the nation's oil industry hostage.
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- - La Times-Washington Post http://www.indian-express.com/ie20011226/op3.html
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