- WASHINGTON - Pakistan and
India are readying their ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons for a possible
showdown, says The Washington Times.
Correspondent Bill Gertz, who is known for his sensational reports, quotes
US intelligence officials indicating that India will have all its forces
ready to launch an attack as early as this week, with Thursday or Friday
as possible dates. He goes on to speculate that Pakistan could launch its
forces before those dates in a pre-emptive strike.
While India and Pakistan seemed to be toning down their rhetoric - with
India taking note of Hafiz Saeed's arrest and the two foreign secretaries
sharing bread at the SAARC moot - The Washington Times report gave an opposite
picture, though not for the first time.
It says that Pakistani military moves include large-scale troop movements,
the dispersal of fighter aircraft and preparations for the transportation
of nuclear weapons from storage sites. India also is moving thousands of
its troops near the border with Pakistan and has dispersed some aircraft
to safer sites away from border airfields.
Meanwhile, another report in The Los Angeles Times reports that Indian
troops are also laying land mines along the border with Pakistan. If nothing
happens, Indian would like to use the troops mobility to hold its biggest
military manoeuvres in 15 years along the border, where its troops are
expected to practice reacting to a nuclear attack.
The Times claims that Pakistan is moving the equivalent of two armoured
brigades - several thousand troops and hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles.
It quotes US officials saying that the most alarming signs are preparations
in both states for the use of nuclear-tipped missiles. India is getting
its short-range Prithvi ballistic missiles ready for use and Pakistan is
mobilising its Shaheen missiles, which have been readied for movement from
a base near Sargodha, says the report.
With tensions growing between the states, US intelligence officials are
divided over the ultimate meaning of the indicators of an impending conflict,
writes the Times. The Pentagon's Joint Staff intelligence division, known
as J-2, late last week had assessed the danger of conflict at "critical"
levels.
Other joint intelligence centres outside the Pentagon, including those
supporting the US military forces responsible for the Asia-Pacific region
and for Southwest Asia, assess the danger of an India-Pakistan war as less
than critical but still "serious".
An analyst on ABC channel disclosed that intelligence officials are especially
worried about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal because control over the weapons
is decentralised. Even before the latest moves, regional commanders could
order the use of the weapons, which are based on missiles or fighter-bombers.
Local TV networks were found comparing the arsenals of the two countries.
It was noted that India's Prithvi has a range of about 155 miles, and the
Indians are estimated to have some 75 Prithvis in their arsenal. They also
are working on longer-range Agni missiles. US intelligence officials believe
India has about 60 nuclear weapons that can be delivered by missiles or
aircraft. Its nuclear-capable aircraft include Russian-made bombers, including
10 Tu-142 Bears and four Tu-22M Backfires, as well as several hundred MiG-27,
MiG-29 and Su-30 fighter-bombers.
Pakistan's missile force consists of some 50 M-11s, which have a range
of about 186 miles, enough to hit the Indian capital New Delhi. Its medium-range
Ghouri missiles have a range of about 800 miles, enough to hit most parts
of India.
The report claims that US intelligence agencies have obtained reconnaissance
photographs from one Pakistani missile base that show storage-shed doors
open in preparation for the movement of missiles. One of the photographs
shows a line of 47 rail cars on a track near the base in preparation for
the movement of missiles and their warheads.
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- The private Natural Resources Defence Council estimates
that Islamabad has between 24 and 48 nuclear weapons.
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- The News International, Pakistan http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2002-daily/01-01-2002/main/main6.htm
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