- India enjoys a strong numerical advantage over Pakistan
in both conventional and nuclear weapons, giving it an edge in its current
confrontation with its perennial foe, according to data released by a leading
US think tank.
But a prominent US expert on South Asia also warned that the roughly two-to-one
military advantage of the Indian armed forces makes it more likely that
a cornered Islamabad could lash out with a nuclear strike.
"If you had a full war between India and Pakistan, not just skirmishes
on the border, India would start winning," said former US ambasador
Dennis Kux, who has served in both India and Pakistan. "And at a certain
point Pakistan, rather than going under, would push the button," he
said on CNN's The Capital Gang show.
According to a report by the Washington-based , India has more than 12
lakh soldiers on active duty compared to Pakistan's 6.2 lakh.
A similar advantage is observed in practically all major conventional weapons
category, the survey showed. New Delhi's arsenal includes 3,414 main battle
tanks and 1,540 light tanks, while Islamabad's heavy armor is limited to
a total of 2,300 pieces.
India is also better positioned in the sky, if its current tensions with
Pakistan were ever to boil over into a shooting war.
India's air bases house a total of 738 combat aircraft while Pakistan's
house 353, according to CSIS. New Delhi also has nearly a five-fold advantage
in transport aircraft and a six-fold advantage in combat helicopters, which,
as events in Afghanistan have shown, can inflict devastating damage on
ground troops.
In addition, India has 37 Naval aircraft compared to Pakistan's five, the
reported indicated.
Islamabad has an advantage only in self-propelled artillery, being able
to field 240 pieces compared to India's 180. But it loses out in towed
artillery where New Delhi has a 4,175-to-1,467 advantage, the data showed.
Kux said geography also favored India because an armored blitz across arid
Punjab province toward the Afghan border could cut off Islamabad, the capital,
from Sindh, the country's economic owerhouse and its main port of Karachi.
"India could just cut across the middle of Pakistan," said the
former diplomat. "In the desert, it should be fairly easy to do."
US experts believe that even in an exchange of nuclear strikes, India,
while suffering tremendous losses, could have an advantage. Although no
reliable official data is available, it is estimated that New Delhi has
400 kg of weapons-usable plutonium, according to the CSIS report.
Since it takes about six kg of plutonium to manufacture a nuclear bomb,
the amount would be sufficient to produce some 65 bombs if old technologies
are used, or 90 bombs employing more advanced methods.
By contrast, Pakistan is believed to have more than 200 kg of weapons-grade
uranium, which is enough to construct 15 to 25 nuclear weapons, the report
said.
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