- Americans' ratings of economic conditions fell to their
lowest level in more than five years, per an ABCNEWS/'Money' magazine
poll.
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- It's a lump of coal for consumer confidence this holiday,
with Americans' ratings of economic conditions falling to their lowest
of the year - indeed their lowest in more than five years in the weekly
ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll.
-
- The drop accelerates a trend in which ratings of personal
finances recently joined views of the national economy on a downward track.
Today 56 percent of Americans say their own finances are good, down from
year's high of 67 percent last February. Fewer, just 33 percent, rate the
economy positively, steeply down from 71 percent last January.
-
- A third gauge, public views of the buying climate, have
held up better, possibly because of holiday sale prices, although not well
enough to cheer many retailers. Forty-five percent call it a good time
to buy, not far from its 2001 peak of 48 percent.
-
- The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on these
gauges, now stands at -11 on its scale of +100 to -100, down an unusually
sharp five points this week. The index has fallen from +23 at the start
of this year and from +38, its record, in January 2000. Its lowest in 16
years of weekly tracking was -50 in February 1992.
-
- This index gauges consumer views of current economic
conditions; expectations for the future, measured separately, have been
looking brighter (see ABC/ Money report of Dec. 9). But this week's data
suggest that getting to the future could be a bumpy ride.
-
- Interviews for this week's poll were conducted in the
month ending Sunday, with 250 interviews a week. The index has no history
of movements as large as this week's " up or down " around the
Christmas and New Year's holidays.
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- A Closer Look
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- As usual, confidence is higher among better-off
Americans.
The index is +13 in higher-income households compared to -38 in the lowest,
+1 among college graduates while -23 among high-school dropouts, -2 among
whites but -41 among blacks and +3 among men while -14 among women.
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- Here's a closer look at the three components of the
ABCNEWS/
Money poll:
-
- NATIONAL ECONOMY " Thirty-three percent of Americans
rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down four points from last
week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in
late 1991 and early 1992.
-
- PERSONAL FINANCES " Fifty-six percent rate their
own finances as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The
best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000.
The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
-
- BUYING CLIMATE " Forty-five percent say it's an
excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down one point
from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20
percent in fall 1990.
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- Methodology
-
- The ABCNEWS/ Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index
represents
a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults
nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews
in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3
percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International
Communications
Research of Media, Pa.
-
- The ABCNEWS/ Money index is derived as follows: The
negative
response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response
to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided
by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three
measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began
in December 1985.
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