- The global GM food bubble may have burst after almost
10 years of exponential growth. Companies are investing less in research
than five years ago, profits are static, countries are tightening up
labelling
and import laws, the promised new generation of crops which could bring
health benefits is still years away, and no major new markets are expected
to develop for some time.
-
- Paradoxically, Guardian research has also found that
the acreage of GM crops is still growing in the US and, at more than 109m
acres now across the world, is 25 times what it was five years ago. The
industry, moreover, has now convinced almost all governments and world
bodies to back the bitterly disputed technology.
-
- But Sergey Vasnetsov, Wall Street's leading chemical
industry analyst with Lehman Brothers, says: "The outlook [for the
GM food industry] is less certain than it was three years ago. The euphoria
has gone. Growth has fallen significantly. The industry has overstated
the rate of progress and underestimated the resistance of consumers.
-
- "Acceptability will only come with new products
but that seems to be something the industry cannot achieve. The crops that
will benefit people [as opposed to farmers] are still three or four years
away. The market is not expanding and research budgets are down 5-7% on
five years ago. Conceptually, the value [of GM foods] has come down,"
says Mr Vasnetsov.
-
- Benedict Haerlin, Greenpeace International's GM analyst,
agrees: "The wonder times are over. The promises have not
materialised.
There are still only four major crops being grown. The world market is
reducing in terms of delivery.
- Scathing
-
- But the GM food companies are confident they can overcome
regulatory hurdles and global opinion. World leader Monsanto, whose seeds
were planted on more than 80m acres last year - but which has had to slash
costs, cut back on research and fire almost 700 people - is conducting
field trials in many developing countries and reported an 11% increase
on acreage. The global GM acreage is thought to be 17% higher than in 2000.
Most of the new plantings, however, have been in north America.
-
- Mr Vasnetsov is scathing of the claims made by the UN,
chemical companies and scientists that GM crops will alleviate hunger in
developing countries. "Let's stop pretending we face food shortages.
There is hunger, but not food shortages. GM food is for the rich world.
The money from GM is in developed countries. The battle is in Europe,"
he says.
-
- Greenpeace's Benedict Haerlin agrees. "No GM company
is going to produce varieties for poor countries unless it sees a
market,"
he says.
-
- US analysts fear that GM crops, after 10 years of
plantings,
are still a north American phenomenon, with the rest of the world proving
increasingly cautious. The US now has 80% of all plantings, followed by
Canada, Argentina and China. Ten other countries grow small amounts.
-
- Overcoming Europe's five-year-old moratorium on new
commercial
plantings is crucial for the development of the crops. EU draft laws
announced
last month would allow imports with 1% contamination of conventional crops
by GM organisms, but while allowing new GM crops to be grown, they could
increase to up to three miles the buffer zone between them and conventional
ones which could put most farmers off. The companies are expected to lobby
to relax the limits.
-
- US growers and government fear that their £30bn
food export industry is being undermined as countries try to substitute
their exports for those of the US. Despite the objections of the US
government
and lobbyists, many countries are now trying to turn the screw on US
agriculture
by increasing regulatory pressure.
-
- Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is bringing
in strict laws on labelling and traceability; Algeria, a large food
importer,
may ban completely their import, manufacture or sale; Japan, which takes
20% of all US food exports worth $11bn a year, has imposed tough labelling
rules on 24 product categories and new Chinese laws may delay GM maize
for several years. In Sri Lanka, the government has come under intense
pressure from the World Trade Organisation and business not to reimpose
a ban on imports and growing of the crops.
- Wariness
-
- The US government and farm organisations admit that GM
has severely hit exports. Europe, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have
largely
switched to buying non-GM maize and soya from Brazil and China rather than
the US. The US department of agriculture recently lowered its maize export
forecast by 50m bushels as a result of GM's unacceptability.
-
- Meanwhile, legal uncertainties surrounding the testing
of GM crops are leading some European biotech and seed companies to shift
their research to north America. "We won't be carrying out any more
field trials in Germany for this year," said seed company Norddeutsche
Pflanzenzucht (NPZ).
-
- The companies say farmers are happy with the performance
and profitability of the crops, but the global wariness has prompted even
biotech supporters to question GM. A recent survey of the 14,000 members
of the American Corn Growers' Association suggested 78% would abandon GM
to recover lost export markets.
-
- While animosity to growing the crops may have peaked
in Europe, consumer support is waning in the US. An ABC poll in June found
52% saying GM foods were "not safe to eat," and only 35%
expressing
total confidence. A year earlier, a Gallup poll found the reverse, with
51% seeing no health hazard.
-
- The hoped-for "ethical" GM crops which have
been promoted by governments and scientists are also reported to be years
away from markets. Subsistence farmers will not be able to benefit from
Syngenta's much-hyped "golden rice", modified to include vitamin
A for the benefit of people in developing countries, for at least four
years because at present it is only viable in temperate climates.
-
- Monsanto is preparing to introduce GM wheat within two
years but US and Canadian farmers, who dominate world exports, are
cautious.
More than 200 Canadian groups, including the National Farmers' Union and
the Canadian Wheat Board, want the test plantings to stop, fearing GM wheat
will damage exports.
-
- In the past month, the UN has claimed GM crops could
significantly help developing countries, the EU has taken the first steps
to ending its moratorium on new plantings, Britain has sanctioned 30 more
major trials in readiness for commercial growing, and the New Zealand
government
has strongly backed the crops.
-
- Testing Times - 25,000 Trials in 40
Countries
-
- * The genetic modification of plants involves
transferring
DNA from a plant, bacterium, or even an animal, into a different plant
species
-
- * The four main GM crops are corn (maize), cotton, soya
bean and canola
-
- * More than 109m acres of GM crops are grown
worldwide
-
- * The main planting areas are in the US, Canada,
Argentina
and China
-
- * Since 1985, when genetically engineered plants
resistant
to insects, viruses, and bacteria were first tested, 25,000 trials have
been carried out in more than 40 countries
-
- * In 1995 the EU approved the importation and use of
genetically modified soya
-
- * The UN development programme, and all major national
scientific bodies, believe GM crops can benefit farmers and
consumers
-
- * This year more than 30 test sites have been wholly
or partly destroyed in Britain
-
- * Apart from all major crops, tests have been done on
most vegetables, as well as trees and fish.
-
- The Four Types of GM Crops
-
- * Bt crops: Protected against insect damage and reduce
pesticide use. Plants produce a protein - toxic only to certain insects
- found in the common soil bacterium bacillus thuringiensis, or Bt
-
- * Herbicide tolerant: Allow farmers to control weeds
without harm to the crop
-
- * Disease-resistant: Armed against destructive viral
plant diseases with a "vaccine"
-
- * Nutritionally enhanced: Foods that could offer higher
levels of nutrients and vitamins.
-
-
-
- MainPage
http://www.rense.com
-
-
-
- This
Site Served by TheHostPros
|