- Self-taught physicist Charles Cagle is
on a mission from God. The world will end in the year 2000 and he has a
Web site and some cool PhotoShop images to prove it.
-
- Amateur scientist Charles Cagle must have *really* weird dreams. He predicts huge CME's (coronal
mass ejections -- see http://www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/news/9712/newsrelease.html) from the Sun, a magnetic pole reversal, and
catastrophic planet-wide destruction (http://www.artbell.com/cagle.html).
-
- The CME's will "raise the temperature
of the atmosphere for regions as large as a million square miles several
hundred degrees in as little as 4-5 minutes," he predicts on his Wrath
Of God Web page (http://www.teleport.com/~singtech/wrath.html). "Whole crops will destroyed over a large
geographic area which will lead to widespread famine for many of those
left who have yet survived the other catastrophic events. Large forest
lands, like the Brazilian rain forest system would undergo extensive devastation.
Rapid heating of the ocean surface will generate extreme weather conditions....
[There will be] rapid thinning and subsidence of island and mountain chains
which have hot basements. The Hawaiian chain will subside more rapidly
that [than?] it will be possible to evacuate people from them (some of
the islands will go down in a day). Likewise will most new major mountain
chains like the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes, Alps and many others begin rapid
subsidence. Sea floor spreading zones will become very active and the planet
will begin to expand.".
-
- He says he based these predictions on
the fact (read: assumption) that Cycle 23 (the one we're now entering --
see graph at http://www.sel.noaa.gov/info/Cycle23.html) will be larger than Cycle 19 (the largest ever
recorded). "The fact is that many scientists are predicting that cycle
23 will be the largest solar maximum ever recorded." (http://www.teleport.com/~singtech/wrath.html)
-
- Proof: I read it on the Internet
-
- When I asked him to produce names, he
said he read it on the Internet and didn't have any names. He further admitted
to me when I pinned him down that he didn't have any data on solar emissions
and was not even a solar scientist.
-
- Reality check: According to a panel of
top scientists assembled by NOAA and NASA: "The conditions presently
being observed in the Sun-Earth environment are not consistent with those
observed prior to Cycle 19 and do not support the idea that Cycle 23 will
be as large as Cycle 19." (http://www.sel.noaa.gov/info/Cycle23.html)
-
- In another deceptive (but transparent)
attempt (http://www.teleport.com/~singtech/wrath.html) to impress the non-scientist,
Charles quotes solar scientist Cary
Oler:
-
- "There is strong evidence that we
may now be within the rapid rising phase of new solar cycle 23. July and
August had high mean sunspot numbers. In fact, August's mean sunspot number
of around 36 (unofficial) is the highest observed since the decline of
solar cycle 22 several years ago. The continued formation of new active
regions (of the correct new cycle polarity) together with the increasing
levels of sunspot numbers and associated solar flux levels suggests we
are very likely now entering the rapid ascension phase of cycle 23."
-
- I asked Cary: Do you feel your quote
is out of context? It appears that way to me. He replied (I'm quoting with
permission):
-
- "Based on what you've said, YES!
Very certainly it has been taken out of context. What I stated is true
and factual. But it has no relationship whatsoever to his apocalyptic
prediction. I merely stated that we are in the ascending phase of the
new solar cycle. And that is in fact exactly what is happening. But this
happens every 11 years, as he is very much aware. There is nothing unusual
about it. It's a natural cycle of the Sun. It is progressing normally,
with the usual number of odd spurts and burps that have always accompanied
the arrival of the ascending phases. If you'll look at predictions with
actual sunspot numbers, you'll see that we're well within prediction limits.
I don't see what he's getting at. Nothing unusual is happening!
-
- "He knows very well I would not
consent to his request to accept his theory as a valid one. Why he would
say that the paragraph you quoted justifies his theory is really beyond
me. It sounds like he is desparately trying to grasp at straws that don't
exist. I think most psychologists out there would probably agree that
this is a natural reaction from someone who can't admit defeat but knows
they don't ha7ve the support to win a debate.
-
- "Let's look at this objectively.
In the over 300-years since we have been observing the sun religiously,
there has never been a coronal mass ejection with a strength large enough
to even come close to proving his theory. In fact, I can't recall a single
episode which may have even proven a small part of his theory correct.
I'm sure (and I hope) he will refute me if I'm mistaken (and I hope you
will pass me his comments to confirm his evidence). For several millenia
prior to our earliest telescopic observations, the Earth has not undergone
anything as serious as he suggests may happen this solar cycle.
-
- "So, if nothing has happened in
over 300 solar cycles, I think it's fairly safe to say (simply by persistent
predictions alone!) that cycle 23 is not going to result in an apocalyptic
tragedy.
-
- "If the Sun and Earth are capable
of interacting in the violent manner he predicts, then there must be some
form of evidence indicating that it happened at least one time in the distant
past. The scale of the destruction and the level of radiation that would
supposedly be introduced into living tissues would almost certainly be
traceable in a large-scale (even global) way."
-
- Besides, God told me
- Charles further based his catatrophe
prediction on his "catastrophe physics" model. When I asked him
for numerical details on the model and for the results of peer reviews
by scientists (the normal scientific discovery process), he launched into
an irrational tirade about the wrath of God. His APOCALYPTIC PHYSICS (http://www.teleport.com/~singtech/Apocal.html), he explained, is "taught to men by the
LIVING GOD."
-
- Right, in other words, when challenged
to produce the most basic facts to support his speculations, he appeals
to religious authority -- or at least his private tortured apocalytic interpretation
of it. An admission that his speculations are groundless pseudoscience.
-
- Charles further bases his predictions
on magnetic pole reversal resulting from the CME, while providing no evidence
for it. Rice University Space Sciences Department of Space Physics &
Astronomy physicist Andrew Urquhart <URQUHART@alfven.rice.edu, who compiles
a comprehensive list of Web sites on Sun-Earth interaction (Space Weather
Resources, http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/), comments: "The terrestrial [magnetic pole
shift] cycle operates on geologic time scales and isn't of particular concern
now." Meaning that shifts occur over hundreds of thousands of years.
For a sanity check, see the geomagnetic polarity time scale at http://wrgis.wr.usgs.gov/docs/chron/paleomag/TIME.HTML.
-
- Das Master Plan
It used to be that wild-eyed prophets predicting "the end is nigh"
would be ignored as they carried signs on the street and gave out tracts.
Today they have Web sites and appear on the Art Bell show, so they're taken
seriously. I guess the Internet, apocalyptic pseudoscience, and aliens
here to save us fill the gap left by religion. "I want to believe,"
as the X-Files poster says.
-
- Or is this part of a grand Illuminati
scheme by the Secret Government to convince the scientifically naive (most
of us) that's it's so hopeless we should give up and agree to their conveniently-timed
Year 2000 one-world-government master plan, spearheaded by a messianic
dictator?
-
- "The only acceptable sacrifice which
is a broken heart and a contrite spirit," as Charles puts it (http://www.teleport.com/~singtech/wrath.html).
-
- No thanks.
|
Homepage