- "The problem is now so clearly linked
to global security that the U.S. intelligence community has begun to monitor
China's water situation with the kind of attention it once focused on Soviet
military maneuvers."
- While the controversy over President
Clinton's appearance at Tiananmen Square dominated discussion over his
visit to China, a more ominous issue was being ignored: China's water scarcity.
This is a new security issue that could well emerge as a dominant force
in China's future and the world's.
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- China is facing an impending water shortage
that has the potential to undermine its food production, boost world grain
prices and precipitate political instability in many developing countries.
-
- The signs of water stress are everywhere.
Half of China's 617 largest cities face water deficits. Beijing is among
the most water-short, living on borrowed time as it takes irrigation water
from farmers and overpumps its ground-water supplies.
-
- Satellite images show springs, lakes
and rivers drying up throughout the northern half of China. The Yellow
River, the cradle of early Chinese civilization, failed to reach the sea
for 226 days in 1997, leaving Shandong (a province that produces one-fifth
of China's corn and one-seventh of its wheat) deprived of part of its irrigation
water for several months.
-
- A 1998 Chinese assessment reports that
the water table under much of the North China Plain, a region responsible
for nearly 40 percent of China's grain production, has fallen an average
of 5 feet each of the last five years. A Sino-Japanese analysis from 1997
reports that water tables are falling almost everywhere in China where
the land is flat. Millions of farmers are finding their wells pumped dry.
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- China depends on irrigated land to produce
70 percent of the grain for its huge population of 1.2 billion people,
but it is diverting more and more irrigation water to supply the needs
of fast-growing cities and booming industries. As rivers run dry and aquifers
are depleted, China's swelling demands for water are colliding with its
limited supply.
-
- While China is not the first nation to
face a water crisis, it is the first large nation to do so. As the world's
largest producer and consumer of grain, water shortages in China will be
felt around the world.
-
- The prospect of China turning to the
global grain market to meet domestic shortfalls raises the possibility
of jumps in world grain prices that could aggravate social and political
instability in many Third World cities. With its booming economy and massive
trade surpluses, China can survive its water shortages by simply importing
more of its food. But low-income countries with growing grain deficits
will struggle to pay the higher prices.
-
- For the 1.3 billion of the world's people
who live on $1 a day or less, higher grain prices could quickly become
life-threatening. Hungry urban dwellers who lose patience with their governments
will riot.
-
- The problem is now so clearly linked
to global security that the U.S. intelligence community has begun to monitor
China's water situation with the kind of attention it once focused on Soviet
military maneuvers. The National Intelligence Council, the umbrella over
all U.S. intelligence agencies, has completed a comprehensive assessment
of China's food prospects. The report, called the MEDEA Study on the Future
of Chinese Agriculture, concludes that China's future grain shortfalls
will result in ''demands on the world grain market that approach today's
total exports.''
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- Mitigating China's water crisis will
involve an across-the-board effort to restructure all sectors of China's
economy with water-efficiency as a priority. Necessary steps will include
raising the price of water to encourage efficient use in agriculture, homes
and industry, strengthening pollution controls to protect scarce water
supplies and shifting from water-intensive fossil fuel energy to water-efficient
solar and wind power.
-
- Vice President Al Gore spearheaded efforts
to get the U.S. intelligence community thinking about environmental issues
and their ramifications for security. He has succeeded in broadening the
definition of security to include such practical concerns as how future
populations will be fed.
-
- President Clinton would be well advised
to read this report and find time during the remainder of his visit to
address China's growing water problem.
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- The president can pursue the MEDEA report's
proposal for joint U.S.-China collaboration on water issues, as well as
ask what else the United States and the world community can do to help
solve the water problem before it escalates. A concerted and timely effort
will benefit not only China, but also the rest of the world.
-
- Halweil is a research fellow at the Worldwatch
Institute, an environmental research group based in Washington.
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